지속가능성 평가를 위한 지역생태-경제모형개발 연구 Ⅰ

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to review the applicability of the ecosystem-economy integrated model using the system dynamics approach. To begin with, this study theoretically reviews the relationship between the human society and the nature. The governing rule over the natural phenomenon is the laws of thermodynamics and any environmental policy analysis must keep this rule as the fundamental precondition. During long history, humanities considered the nature something beyond the mere providers of resources. However, theorists of the Neo-classical economics have degraded the nature (or land) as the mere inputs of production. And this become one of the causes of the current ecosystem crisis. If humanity want to achieve the sustainable development, we must construct and practise a new paradigm to harmonizing the environment, economy, and society all together. First of all our top priority should be the conservation of the carrying capacity of the global ecosystem. And we should also learn how to equitably share the scarce resources both inter-and intra- generations, since the current level of the environment use by humanities has already reached to the limitation of the ecosystem. Using scarce resources for the most efficient way is additional important precondition for sustainable development. With these basic knowledge, this study reviewed methodologies to develop the environment - economy integration models. Among various principles and techniques of developing the integrated models, the input-output type models, material balance approach, econometrics (multiple equation) models, and linear programming techniques are best known. All these approaches have their own merits and demerits. However, the most salient problem of all these is their limitation in handling the dynamics of the ecology-economy system interaction, in particular the long-term stability of both the systems and their relationship. Since both systems are the complex systems, the interaction between them will become much more complex. And the traditional methods show significant weaknesses in handling the dynamics of these complex system. As an alternative to these problem, this study examined the integration of both the ecology and economic systems using the system dynamics approach. Theoretically, the system dynamics approach is well-fit to the analysis of the ecology-economy complex system, since the approach adopts the evolutionary understandings and system analysis techniques inevitable to understand the complex system. Broadly, the sustainability refers to the persistence of the integrity and structure of any system over time. Accordingly, The system dynamics technique whose core natures are the dynamic thinking, feedback thinking, and operational thing can be one of the best candidate for the sustainability analysis of the ecology-economy integrated system. After suggesting the system dynamics approach as a modelling tool of the ecology-economy integration, this study illustrates the procedures and guidelines of using the modelling technique in some detail. Finally, this study developed a demonstration model to assess the ecology-economy impacts of the clap discharge projects that Chung-Cheong and Kyong-Ki provinces have implemented for several years. The model, using some real and artificial data, well illustrates the dynamics of ecological economic system changes both in ecosystem including the clap population growth and the socio-economic activities including revenues of residents, changes in clap prices, declines in the fertilizers and pesticides, etc. Of course, the model is only for the demonstration requiring very cautious interpretation and should be extended further adding much more reliable real data. This study is planned to perform for two years and this report is the result of the first year study. The emphasis in the first year study was given to find out the modelling approach that better fit to the ecology-economy complex system. As we find out the system dynamics approach as an useful candidate, we will be focus more on various principles and criteria in developing the integrated ecology-economy model and will develop an actual policy evaluation model using system dynamics techniques in the second year study.