지속가능성 평가를 위한 지역생태-경제모형개발Ⅱ

Abstract

A Study on Ecological-Economic Model Development for Sustainability Evaluation Ⅱ This study is the second year outcome of a study to review and demonstrate the applicability of the ecosystem-economy integrated model using the system analysis approach. In the first year study, this study theoretically reviewed the relationship between the human society and the nature and learned that we must construct and practise a new paradigm to harmonizing the environment, economy, and society all together if humanity want to achieve the sustainable development. After reviewing various methodologies to develop the environment - economy integration models, this study examined the integration of both the ecology and economic systems using the system dynamics approach and developed a demonstration model to assess the ecology-economy impacts of the clap discharge projects that Chung-Cheong and Kyong-Ki provinces have implemented for several years. Based on the previous year's study outcomes, this study directly address the way how we can evaluate the sustainability of a region or nation. Methodologically, there are three approaches to measure and evaluate sustainability of a region and nation; they are analysis of environmental capacity, development of sustainability indicators (or index), systems analysis, etc. All these approaches have their own merits and demerits. However, considering both the complexity and dynamics of ecological economic systems, the systems approaches command great interest and potentials that we have witnessed last year. After reviewing the structures and growth mechanisms of an ecosystem and an economic system and the interaction between them, this study developed a theoretical model on sustainability evaluation based on an integrated ecological-economic system approach. The theoretical framework of the model would be applicable for both regional and national scales with small modifications. The ecological-economic model is composed of four sub-systems: economic activities, production factors and natural resources, environmental pollution and management, and social development. Along with the framework of the theoretical model, this study developed a system dynamics simulation model on integrated ecological-economic system for Korea. The model is an only primary model on Korea's ecological-economic system. However, it demonstrated some very interesting implications for Korea's future development, when we simulated the model with scenarios. The model, we believe, has a lot of potentials of further expansion and can be applied various policy simulation and scenario analysis. Some of the implications are; with decreased rate of population growth and aging of the people, economic growth rate of Korea would be decreased resulting reducing environmental burdens; the water quality would be improved with increased environmental investment, but air quality would not. The natural purification capacity of water pollution would be reduced along with the reduction of agricultural lands, but that of air pollutants would not as the increased bio-mass of forest although the amount of forest land would be decreased continuously. Concluding two years study on ecological-economic modelling, this study strongly believes that the system analysis approaches have a great possibility and could be a useful method to evaluate if an ecological-economic system is sustainable. However, we also suggest that the system analysis technique should be used with other techniques such as econometrics, GIS if some want to get better models to address various issues related with the sustainability.