기후변화 영향평가 및 적응시스템 구축 Ⅰ

Abstract

In recent years, parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) have recognized the importance of reducing vulnerability to climate change and establishing adaptation policies in addition to the mitigation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. At the eleventh Conference of Parties (COP-11; Montreal 2005), the five-year work program on adaptation has been adopted, and the main discussion theme of the COP is being shifting from mitigation to adaptation. Adaptation is a process by which individuals, communities, and countries seek to cope with the consequences of climate change and climate variability (UNDP, 2005). For developing countries, reducing vulnerability to climate change can be an urgent issue because these countries tend to lack the tools to deal with consequent climate risks. Although the need for the development of adaptation strategies is widely acknowledged and practical guidelines to adaptation policy-making is provided by international organizations such as the UNDP and OECD, the issue of adaptation is relatively new in Korea. The purpose of this study is to assess the impacts of climate change in sectoral levels, to identify climate vulnerability, and to develop an integrated and effective nationwide adaptation strategic framework for Korea. The project is set for three-year (2005-2007), and this report presents the results of the first year’s effort. In the first year, the concepts of vulnerability and adaptation of climate change and the related negotiation process under the Convention were reviewed. In addition, we examined studies conducted in Korea in relation to impact assessments of and adaptations to climate change in agriculture, forest, health, and industry/energy sectors. In the second year, the sectoral assessment will be continued for water and coastal zones. Further, the development of techniques to evaluate the vulnerability will be followed by the outcomes from the sector-level impact assessments. In the third year, we will develop integrated and effective adaptation strategies at the national level in order to enhance adaptive capacity for identified vulnerable sectors based on the results from the first and second year. The major findings from this year can be summarized as follows. In agriculture and forest sectors, related statistics and case studies are relatively well established in Korea. In the agricultural sector, it is expected that the boundaries with the potential for cultivation will move toward the north for major crops. The rice yield is reported to increase when CO2 concentration increases in the atmosphere, while decreasing wit the fall of average air temperature (Shin, 2000). However, the effects of crop productivity are largely subject to local conditions other than climate. Agricultural systems are vulnerable to climate extremes such as floods and drought, and the resulting financial damages have substantially increased after 1980 in Korea. Forest ecosystems and industries can be significantly affected by climate change, including forest biodiversity, nutrition cycles and productivity, and natural disasters such as fire or drought. Jeon et al. (2002) predicted that warm-temperate forests will decline to be replaced by sub-tropical forests in the Korean peninsula. The study conducted by the Korea Forest Research Institute (KFRI, forthcoming) reports similar results, supporting that broad-leaved tree species such as the Quercus serrata, Carpinus laxiflora, Carpinus tschonoskii will increase while the Pinus koraiensis and Quercus mongolica Fisch. will decrease when the temperature increase by 1°C in the next 100 years. Heat and heat waves are likely to increase in severity and frequency with increasing average temperatures. In Seoul, an additional 1°C increase from 29.9°C during the summers is estimated to cause a 3% increase in deaths (Kim, 2004). In addition, incidences of diseases related to air pollution such as asthma are increasing among children and elderly people. The development of adaptation strategies is important. Because heat-related illnesses and deaths are largely preventable through behavioral adaptations including use of air conditioning and increased fluid intake. Assessing the impacts of climate change on human health is complicated task. It requires significant time to identify clear relationship between diseases and climate variables. In Korea, research on the impact on human health due to climate change is in its infancy. More research is definitely warranted. In the industry sector, research efforts are largely ignored except for the agricultural, forestry, and fishery product industries. Because these industries are directly influenced by climate change, the reasons to undertake impact assessments are relatively straightforward. However, assessments of the manufacturing and service industries are a different story because the impacts due to climate change are not clearly defined. It is likely that climate change modifies the behavioral patterns of consumers and producers. However, the direction and the extent of influence is uncertain. Presumably, there will be behavioral changes in the consumption of summer products such as air-conditioning and cold drinks. In addition, the summer recreational industry will conceivably expand. Nevertheless, little empirical research is found in Korea as far as this study is concerned. In the industry sector, impact assessments will be an urgent research agenda.