지역환경ㆍ경제통합모형을 이용한 도시성장의 환경영향 분석

Abstract

This study develops a regional econometric model to extend and complement standard local economic impact analysis for Korean cities. We use a static macroeconomic model to derive labor supply equations and environmental equations. The resulting empirical model is based on a cross- sectional econometric analysis of Korean cities. The use of the estimated econometric model is illustrated with a real job-growth scenario using the growth in jobs between 2000 and 2006 for each Korean city. We focus on the effect of job growth on the labor market, especially on the allocation of jobs between in-migration, in-commuting and the local resident labor force. The purpose of this research was to estimate the effect of employment changes between 2000 and 2006 on population, labor and the environment. In order to do this, we have determined the estimated value of the number of job holders in seven major cities in 2006 and added this to a reduced form equation as an external impact, to predict changes in the eight endogenous variables. It was estimated that the average increase number of the employed in the seven cities was 29.94%; Gwangju showed the highest increase rate of 35.81%, while Busan recorded the lowest, 21.97%. The results of impact analysis demonstrated that employment growth hardly affected population or affected a change in the number of unemployed, but it had a large influence on the labor force increase and participation rate. The employment growth had almost no effect on the amount of SO2, NO2, house wastes and factory wastewater. The results also accord with the actual situation, where employment growth caused a very minor increase in the amount of house wastes and factory wastewater, and a very slight decrease in the density of SO2; however, the effect was too little. Nonetheless, it is difficult to identify the effect of employment growth in each industry on the environment or labor market, by using the simultaneous equation model presumed in this research. In order to analyze the effect of employment growth by industry, the increase of employment in the relevant industry, rather than total employment growth, should be used as an external impact variable. Moreover, as the effect of employment growth on the environment has turned out to be insignificant, it will be meaningful to analyze the matter by using variables such as the GNP or GDP growth of a city as impact variables, in the future research.