PAGE 모델을 이용한 기후변화의 피해 추정

PAGE 모델을 이용한 기후변화의 피해 추정
배수영; 김정은
Issue Date
Series/Report No.
연구보고서 : 2006-09
182 p.
Climatic change
It is vital to estimate potential impacts to establish effective policy measures to deal with climate change. The challenge of this study is to provide a tool to the decision makers to estimate the implications of CO2 emissions over a range of policy options and provide a concise overview of the uncertainties involved. To explore damage costs of various emission scenarios, this study uses PAGE model. This study aims to estimate potential climate change damage costs in Korea. Based on avaiable studies, it could be said with caution that Korea seems to be slightly more sensitive to climate change than EU and USA. To see potential impacts of climate change over uncertain future, this study estimated climate change impacts for three scenarios, A2, B1, and Kyoto scenarios. If no action has been taken, climate change damage cost in Korea could be $million 12,928 ~ 57,900. Cumulative NPV of climate change impacts from 1990 to 2100 would be between $million 143,226 ~ 921,701 depending on emission scenarios. However, this result should be interpreted with extra caution as it draws damage function based on only a few studies available. Results show that an adaptation policy could decrease the degree of climate change impacts significantly. If adaptation policy were implemented, climate change impacts would be decreased by 11,355 million dollars in Korea in 2100. Uncertainty analysis shows that confidence of climate change damage estimation is very low. IPCC(2001) also mentioned sensitivity analysis reveals that climate sensitivity, Korean regional weight factor, global warming half-life has largest impact in estimating climate change impacts in Korea. Further research on this areas would enhance robustness of the result.

Table Of Contents

Chapter 1. Introduction
1. Background and objective
2. Methodology framework
2.1 Methodology overview
2.2 The models
2.3 Uncertainty analysis
Chapter 2. Climate change in Korea
1. Climate change
1.1 The Observed Changes in the Climate system
1.1.1 Temperature
1.1.2 Precipitation
1.1.3 Extreme weather events
1.2 Projected changes in Climate System
1.2.1 Temperature
1.2.2 Precipitation
1.2.3 Extreme Events
1.2.4 Sea level
2. Korean Climate condition
2.1 Temperature
2.2 Change of Season
2.3 Change of precipitation
2.4 Long term trends of main climatic elements
2.5 Prospect and prediction of climate change
2.5.1 Long term trend prediction of Korea’s climate by A2 scenario

Chapter 3. Economic damage of climate change in Korea
1. Climate change impacts
1.1 Agriculture
1.2 Water resource
1.3 Human health
1.4 Energy
1.5 Forestry
1.6 Sea level rise
2. Climate change impacts in Korea
2.1 Agriculture
2.2 Water Resource
2.3 Human Health
2.4 Energy
2.5 Forestry
2.6 Sea level rise
3. Economic damage of climate change in Korea
3.1 Climate change impacts by sector
3.2 Aggregation of economic damage of climate change
3.3 Relative sensitivity to climate change in Korea
3.4 Economic damage function of climate change damage in Korea
Chapter 4. Model & Scenario
1. PAGE model
1.1 The PAGE2002 model
1.2 Parameter values in PAGE2002
1.2.1. Climate parameters
1.2.2 Impact parameters
1.3 Climate Results from PAGE2002 compared to the IPCC

2. Scenario
2.1 Assumption
2.2 Environmental Policies
3. Emission scenarios for PAGE modeling
Chapter 5. Economic impacts of climate change in Korea
1. Economic impacts depending on scenarios
1.1 A2 scenario
1.2 B1 scenario
1.3 Kyoto scenario
1.4 Climate change impacts in Korea
2. Climate change impacts depending on adaptation policy
3. Uncertainty analysis 140
Chapter 6. Conclusion and policy implication
Appendix 1: PAGE2002 Equations
Appendix 2: Summary of Stern review
국문요약 (Abstract in Korean)

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