Post Kyoto 온실가스 감축의무 부담방식에 따른 감축비용 및 기후변화의 영향분석

Post Kyoto 온실가스 감축의무 부담방식에 따른 감축비용 및 기후변화의 영향분석
김정은; 김성희
Issue Date
Series/Report No.
연구보고서 : 2007-15
130 p.
Kyoto protocol
Abstract This study analyzed five post-Kyoto climate regimes which are the most frequently discussed in the international community: contraction and convergence (C&C), common but differentiated convergence (CDC), triptych, and multistage and intensity target. CO2 mitigation costs and climate change impacts for various post-Kyoto options to stabilize CO2 concentration at 550ppm were estimated using the PAGE model. Comparison of costs and impacts for various Post-Kyoto options found that the intensity target option has the lowest costs and that the multistage option would be the most expensive globally. Each country and region has different orders in total costs and impacts for various options depending on individual circumstances. This study found that post-Kyoto options to stabilize CO2 concentrations at 550 ppm reduce climate change impacts significantly. However, total cost and damage is lower for the reference scenario. This could be explained by the long-term characteristics of climate change. CO2 has a long life-span. It stays in the atmosphere for about 100 years. Therefore, the benefits, i.e. reducing climate change impacts, of reducing CO2 emission in a certain year is not confined to that particular year. It will reduce climate change impacts for several decades. This study paid particular attention to Korea in analyzing costs and impacts for various options. Emission reduction requirements in Korea are the highest for C&C and the lowest for intensity target options. Now, the international community, including Korea, is trying to find ways to combat climate change. Each county has their own needs and acts to minimize costs and maximize benefits. This study could provide valuable information in negotiating post-Kyoto climate regimes. It has been found that the lowest cost option for Korea would be the intensity target option; and option favored by other rapidly developing countries such as China. However, this study has some limitation. It analyzed costs and impacts for post-Kyoto options based on emission scenarios developed by Hohne (2007) using the PAGE model. The outcome highly depends on the assumptions from the scenarios and inputs of the PAGE model. Follow-up research is required in order to increase the robustness of this study and to support the development of negotiation strategies for post-Kyoto climate regimes in Korea. First, the development of a comprehensive marginal cost curve is essential. Secondly, this study estimates costs and impacts for various post-Kyoto climate regimes against one reference scenario. Analyzing costs and impacts for each option against different future cases would allow for more solid policy implications. Finally, outcomes from this study were strongly affected by the basic assumptions and input data from the PAGE model. Continuous upgrades to the PAGE model that reflect recent findings in science and economics are critical.

Table Of Contents

- Contents -
Chapter 1. Introduction
1. Background
2. Methodology framework
3. The PAGE2002 model
Chapter 2. PAGE model updates with recent findings of climate change impacts and CO2 emission reduction cost
1. Climate change impacts
1.1 Agriculture
1.2 Hydrology and water resources
1.3 Coastal zone and Marine ecosystems
1.4 Natural ecosystems and biodiversity
1.5 Human health
1.6 Infrastructure, industry and energy
1.7 Aggregation of climate change impacts and economic valuation
1.8 Impact function in PAGE
2. CO2 emission reduction cost
2.1. Recent studies on CO2 reductions cost
2.2. Computing the Costs of Implementing Adaptive and Preventative Policies
Chapter 3. Post-Kyoto options
1. Contraction and Convergence (C&C)
2. Common but Differentiated Convergence (CDC)
3. Triptych
4. Multi Stage
5. Intensity target
Chapter 4. Quantification of emission reduction commitments for various post-Kyoto options
1. CO2 emission pathway to stabilize concentration at 550ppm
2. Emission reduction requirements for various climate regimes
2.1. C&C
2.2. CDC
2.3. Multistage
2.4. Triptych
2.5. GHG intensity target
2.6. Korean context
Chapter 5. Estimating CO2 mitigation costs and climate change impacts for various post-Kyoto options using PAGE model
1. CO2 emission mitigation costs for various post-Kyoto options
2. Climate change impacts for various Post-Kyoto options
3. CO2 control costs and climate change impacts for various post-Kyoto options
4. Korean context
Chapter 6. Conclusion and recommendation
Appendix 1: PAGE Equations
Appendix 2: PAGE2002 parameter values
Abstract in Korean

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