제품분류에 따른 대기오염물질 직ㆍ간접 배출량 추정과 변화요인 분석

Abstract

Criteria Air Pollutants Emissions in Korea: An Analysis Based on Input-Output Approach Korea's economy has recently been undergoing transformation through the interaction of various economic and social forces. New requirements that mandate emissions reductions in response to global climate change may ultimately develop into a force that reshapes the structure of the economy. As global concerns about air pollution grow, Korea is placing increasing priority on analyzing the role of individual industries in the increase in pollutant emissions. In this study, air pollutants emissions in the life cycle of each product group (i.e. the basic categories for the input-output table set forth by the Bank of Korea) were estimated by using environmental input-output tables and air emission and product information for more than 8,000 industrial companies (2003 & 2005). Analysis was performed for NOx, SOx, and particulate matter. The results were used to identify product groups with the greatest impact on the environment. We analyzed each industry's contribution to air pollution emissions by adopting a conventional input-output system. In this report, we analyzed the contribution of individual industries to emissions based on three factors: (i) direct emissions, i.e. those generated from industry itself, (ii) indirect emissions, i.e, those generated by the production of intermediate goods used for the production of another good in an industry which causes direct emissions, (iii) and overall emissions, i.e. the sum of direct and indirect emissions. Furthermore, we applied a methodology of demand-side decomposition of pollution emissions growth within the input-output framework. The decomposition method employed in this analysis originated from the one established by Chenery, Shishido, and Watanabe (1962), as well as Syrquin (1976), etc. The demand side decomposition of output growth analyzes the changes in the pollution emissions induced by changes in domestic consumption, domestic investment, exports, import substitutes for final demand, intermediate input use, and emissions coefficients. Demand-side decomposition allows us to identify the effects of government policies on emissions growth for individual industry sectors, as well as associated structural changes. In this analysis Laspeyre's measure and Paasche's measure were used for decomposition of emission growth, before we presented the final average of the two alternative measures. According to the results of the demand-side decomposition analysis for NOx, SOx and PM10 emissions in Korea for the years of 2003 and 2005, we found that the change in emission coefficients was the dominant source for the changes in the amount of pollution emissions. We also found that changes in domestic final consumption, changes in exports, and changes in intermediate input use mainly contributed to the growth of emissions of NOx, SOx and PM10 in Korea for the periods between 2003 and 2005.