기후변화 대응 온실가스 감축을 위한 국가할당방안 연구 II

Abstract

Study on NAP for Greenhouse Gas Mitigation II Socioeconomic effects from climate change are an issue of national concern throughout the world. Developed countries in particular are operating programs and strategies in response to climate change. Although Korea is presently a Non-Annex I country, it has also recently announced a Greenhouse Gas (GHG) reduction targets to prepare for the situation after 2012 and is seeking out ways to implement Low Carbon Green Growth. In this context, substantial GHG reduction will require diversified provisions. This study was conducted for the purposes of achieving substantial GHG reduction over two years. First, the study established criteria and indicators for the National Allocation Plan (NAP) based on the principles of cost-efficiency and social-acceptance, and performed a case study of the sectoral effort sharing method, using the effort sharing index. Second, it analyzed the effect of both equitable and economical effort sharing by sector on the national economy as well as that of the equitable sharing method on the result of effort sharing. This study investigated whether sectoral effort sharing was improved and whether it was suitable to apply the effort sharing index which was developed in the preceding study. Furthermore, an extended I-O model, in terms of the reduction of GHG, was used to examine the effect of the national economy. Thereafter, the study analyzed the equity of effort sharing based on sectoral preferences and inter-sectoral equity using a Lorenz Curve. This study found that the three weights i.e. the weight of reduction potential to national reduction target, the weight of the rate of increase in emissions, and the weight of GDP growth which considered equitable effort - could reflect the sectoral structure well. The equitable method is more likely to be suitable than the economic one which considers just reduction potential. However, equitable effort sharing requires more reduction cost than the economic effort. Equitable effort sharing reflects a higher level of equity than economic effort sharing. At the same time, the equitable effort sharing method is essential for reflecting equity and establishing criteria for equity because evaluation with the equitable effort sharing method depends in particular on the weight of equity criteria. The result suggests the importance of consideration of equity and the establishment of equity criteria. In conclusion, it is critical to consider not only cost-efficiency but equity in policy decision making in terms of the sectoral effort sharing for national GHG reduction target. In the next stage, the study will conduct effort sharing through installations. In particular, this next stage will require study of participants in the domestic emissions trading scheme, such as those in industry and power generation.