온실가스 저감잠재성 분석 및 감축정책 연구

Abstract

Research on the Mitigation Potentials and Mitigation Policies of the Transport and Buildings in Korea The Republic of Korea is vulnerable to global environmental problems such as its obligations under the Climate Change Agreement that require immediate attention. The Republic of Korea has the world's highest rate of increase of CO2 emissions, 10 times higher than the OECD average of 0.8 percent. Furthermore, the Bali Roadmap for the post-2012 system adopted at the 13th UNFCCC Conference (Dec 2007) will require that Korea take responsibility for cutting greenhouse gas emissions in the future. By sector in 2005 in Korea, the energy industry sector had the highest amount of CO2 emissions at 43 percent, followed by transportation at 22 percent and manufacturing at 19 percent. If we were to look at the composition of CO2 emissions in the transportation sector, roads took up the highest percentage at 78.2, followed by sea (13.2 percent) and air (6.4 percent). Buildings consume a large share of energy at 20 percent and while residences and businesses emitted 79 million tons of carbon dioxide, taking up about 14 percent of total emissions. The potential has increased for Korea to become obligated to cut greenhouse gases after 2013 pursuant to the Bali Roadmap from the UNFCCC has risen. Accordingly, this study estimates each major policy measure's potential to cut greenhouse gases in the transportation and building sectors, which have relatively higher prospects to cut emissions. It also presents specific measures to implement policy in order to contribute to the development of policies at the national level. An energy demand function using a time series measuring model was used to forecast energy demand and to estimate the potential of each policy tool in the transportation and building sectors to cut greenhouse gases. This study estimates and presents the potential of each major policy tool in the transportation sector to cut CO2 based on the BAU of 2015. According to the analysis, expanding the biofuel supply will cut CO2 emissions by 4.274 million tons (-3.9% of total emissions in 2015), enhancing vehicle fuel economy will cut 2.051 million tons (-1.9% of total emissions in 2015), carbon taxing vehicle fuel will cut 1.952 million tons CO2 (-1.8% of total emissions in 2015), enhancing standards for vehicle emission will cut 1.603 million tons CO2 (-1.5% of total emissions in 2015), discarding fuel subsidies will cut 1.496 million tons CO2 (-1.4% of total emissions in 2015), and supporting the expanded supply of eco-friendly vehicles will cut 182,000 tons CO2 (-0.2% of total emissions in 2015). However, the foregoing conclusions on the the potential of each policy tool to cut greenhouse gases should not be used as a test to determine policy priorities. The above analysis should be interpreted only as an attempt to quantify the results of policy by using a partial equilibrium approach methodology under various assumptions made under realistic limits. In terms of use of electricity in the building sector and according to a time series analysis, it is estimated that each one percent increment in the price of electricity reduces demand by about 1.05~1.247 percent. If the actual GDP were to increase annually as per the estimates of the Ministry of Planning and Finance and the price of electricity were to be raised by one percent annually, electricity consumption and CO2 emissions would diminish by about 6.5~7.7 percent compared to the price of electricity remaining constant. The following policies should accordingly be pursued as measures to cut greenhouse gases in the transportation sector. First, in order to enhance the fuel economy/allowed standards for CO2 emission, a bonus should be given for the purchase of vehicles with higher fuel economy or lower CO2 emissions than average and a penalty (“malus”) should likewise be imposed for the purchase of vehicles with lower fuel economy or higher CO2 emissions, creatinga a “feebate” for improved fuel economy/CO2 emissions and thereby cutting emissions in the transportation sector. In order to reflect the social cost of CO2 emissions of each source of energy on the pricing system, it is necessary to explicitly establish taxes such as a carbon tax, separate from the existing system. Furthermore, to vitalize the supply of biofuels, first, annual supply targets should be set, specific supply plans drawn up and an incentive system built in order to reach the targets. In the case of eco-friendly vehicles (hybrid vehicles, fuel cell vehicles, electric vehicles, etc.) with great potential to cut greenhouse gases in the future, it is necessary to largely expand the supply target. To this end, incentives should be provided for purchasing such vehicles or to reorganize the vehicle taxation system, which is now set based on exhaust amount, in the medium- to long-term by linking it to CO2 emissions. Policy measures to cut greenhouse gases in the building sector should be as follows. As it is necessary to raise the price of electricity, it would be reasonable to raise it gradually every year. When the government provides low interest loans for ESCO, it should gradually expand the ratio of funds provided to owners of buildings while at the same time informing owners about the ESCO project and provide information about the appropriate businesses. Furthermore, the application of an energy saving design standard systems for buildings should be expanded to other types of buildings and the design standards as well as energy saving standards should be set. Likewise, measures should be considered to endow flexibility in the design standards if a building satisfies the energy saving standards for having adopted other technologies. For energy efficient grades/standby power saving, instead of relying on consumers' voluntary selection, it would be more effective to set minimum efficiency standards for manufacturers.