기후변화에 따른 연안역의 해역-육역 통합 범람 예측 방안에 관한 기초 연구

Abstract

Preliminary Study on Prediction of Climate Change Induced Flooding in Marine and Terrestrial Areas in Coastal Zone: A Comparative Analysis of Inundation Models Previous impact and adaptation studies on climate change induced coastal inundation have not provided an integrated analysis of the various factors affected by climate change. However, coastal flooding, like fluvial flooding, is significantly affected by changes in rainfall patterns. This indicates that terrestrial factors like river flooding must also be taken into account when assessing the vulnerability of coastal regions to climate change induced floods. Accordingly, the goal of this study is to devise flooding models that can be used to establish a prediction methodology that fully considers terrestrial factors, including the river discharge, in addition to marine factors induced on the open seas. First, changes in climate drivers induced by climate change were investigated through the existing literature. The results of this review indicated that both marine factors (including sea levels and wave height etc.), as well as precipitation were undergoing significant change. Existing research also indicated that Korea has been confronted with increasingly intense rainfall events, a trend that will continue in the future. A large number of hydrodynamic models exist that can predict inundation extents. Among these models, we looked for one that that would provide both accurate results, as reflected in the real world, as well as economic value when used in devising national policy. Accordingly, this study undertook research on case studies in impact assessments to devise a model suitable for assessment of vulnerability to flooding in coastal areas. Several methodologies, were discussed, including HEC-RAS and LISFLOOD-FP, both one dimensional hydrodynamic models, as well as MD_SWMS, a two dimensional model. As a result, it was found that terrestrial factors like fluvial flooding should be taken into full consideration along with marine factors like sea level rises, storm surges, and tidal effects when assessing flood vulnerability in coastal areas due to climate change. The models and assessment schemes introduced in this study can thus be deployed when choosing models for assessment of coastal flooding vulnerability due to climate change.