지구온난화에 따른 지역규모 대기질 영향평가 I

Abstract

The Impact of Climate Change on Regional Scale Air Quality (Ⅰ) According to observational data from recent decades, both the northern and southern hemispheres have been subject to warming; with the northern hemisphere suffering disproportionate warming due to its larger landmass. Research on global warming and its effect on air quality has been proceeding vigorously in other countries. In Korea, on the other hand, while there have been some researches on the impact of climate change(i.e. global warming) on agriculture, forestry, and water resources, etc., research on global warming and its relationship to air quality has been limited. Accordingly, this study was devised to address gaps in the research literature by analyzing the impact of global warming on domestic air quality based on regional scale. IPCC SRES A1B was the scenario used to obtain future meteorological modeling results. Anthropogenic and natural emissions were fixed at the current value when forecasting current and future air quality to assess changes therein due to global warming. As a result, it was found that even if emissions are maintained at current levels, air quality is certain to decline due to global warming. Accordingly, in anticipation of future climate change, the nation as well as regional autonomous bodies will need to prepare sustainable air quality management policies, including strengthening regulations on emissions of pollutants, and strengthening environmental criteria at the national and regional level, while addressing vulnerability in air quality due to climate change. The main details of this study can be summarized as follows: □ Construction and verification of down-scaling for climate change forecasting 1. Down-scaling : ECHAM5(2o X2.5o ) - RCM(50km) - WRF(12km) 2. Designation of a base year and future year : 1995(base year), 2055(future year) 3. System verification : comparison of model and observational values for meteorology and pollutant concentrations - Securing of reliability in meteorology data sets in the RCM(50km) and WRF(12km) domains - Results obtained through comparison with observed values for CO, SO2 , NO2 , and O3 were verified. □ Comparison of the climate in 1995 and 2055(forecast of climate change used IPCC SRES A1B) 1. In 2055, mean temperature in South Korea will increase by approximately 2℃ compared to 1995, while accumulated precipitation will increase. 2. In 2055, the southwest wind flow will strengthen, along with the north pacific anticyclone of the upper air of the Korean peninsula will strengthen. 3. Temperatures will rise an average 2.48℃ in each area, with the Youngnam area(i.e. Gyeongsang Nam and Buk Do, Busan, and Daegu) experiencing the largest increase at 2.71℃. 4. Mixing height : This will be most marked in the Youngnam area(-60.6m) and The Kangwon area will have the most limited changes(-18.7m). □ Assessment of air quality for each area between 1995 and 2055 1. Used air quality model : CMAQ(12km) 2. Air quality will worsen in 2055 compared to 1995 - CO 2.9%, NOX 2.8%, O3 4.8% will increase. 3. 8-hour O3 concentration, the largest factor for human health, was analysed. - The Youngnam area, with the highest O3 concentrations, will experience the most significant increases to 4.6ppb, while the 8-hour O3 concentration in South Korea will be 3.6ppb. - The number of days where 8-hour O3 levels exceed environmental standards in the summer will increase to 13.10 days in the Youngnam area, 9.14 days in the Chungcheong area, 8.39 days in the Kangwon area, 7.82 days in the Seoul/Gyeonggi area, and 3.08 days in the Honam area. 4. The maximum mean temperature and the maximum 8-hour O3 concentration have a mutually reinforcing relationship. - In the Seoul/Gyeonggi area, if the temperature increases by 1℃, the 8-hour O3 concentration will increase to 5.79ppb, and the Seoul/Gyeonggi area will be the most sensitive to climate change. - In South Korea, if maximum mean temperature increases by 1℃, the maximum 8-hour O3 concentration will increase to 4.20ppb. □ In conclusion, if human activities continue as they are, air quality will definitely worsen by 2055 1. Accordingly, policies should be prepared that enable sustainable management of air quality. - Emissions reduction policies are urgently needed. - Strengthening of environmental standards should be considered and reviewed. 2. Assessment of vulnerabilities with respect to air quality as related to climate change should be implemented. - Assessment of vulnerabilities based on the results of climate and air quality change for each region should be pursued. - Adaptation policies should be devised upon analysis of each region.