기후변화 통합영향평가모형 체계 개발

Abstract

Development of Integrated Impact Assessment System to Support Climate Change Policy for Mitigation and Adaptation in Korea In recent years, climate change has become one of the most important global issues. Actions for adaptation and mitigation are urgently required to reduce the adverse impacts of climate change. To this end, the governmental action plan for adaptation to climate change in Korea entitled “Korea's National Climate Change Adaptation Strategies (2011~2015)” was published in 2010 to adapt to climate change in a comprehensive manner at the national level. However, this action plan therein was not established based on the quantitative information from the climate change impact assessments. Furthermore, the plan needs to consider multi-disciplinary and socio-economic impacts of various sectors. Different data formats and designs impose enormous challenges in planning the responses to climate change such as mitigation and adaptation. This report proposes an integrated impact modeling system for supporting climate change policy through the regional assessment of potential impacts of climate change. The results of the efforts this year include a future research plan for the next four-year (2011-2014) project. We will examine the information in detail to develop an integrated assessment system including agriculture, forestry/ecosystem, disaster, water resources sectors, etc. First, we will develop sectoral models and prepare the required dataset for assessing regional impacts during a short-term period (2011-2012). Then the impact function by sector will be prepared to assess the efficiency of climate change policy implementation by national levels. A simplified result from the sectoral impact function represents the quantitative impact of climate change from the physical model by sector. Major findings from this year’s efforts can be summarized as follows: collection of basic information about relevant models to assess climate change impacts through critical reviews of previous studies, and; construction of a road map to develop an integrated impact assessment system for supporting decision-making process of mitigation and adaptation policies at the regional as well as the national level. To develop the proposed system, sectoral impact assessment based on a well-accepted database for future physical and socio-economic changes, a consistent method to assess sectoral impacts, and integration of climate policy with sectoral results in deep uncertainty should be considered. The second-year study will focus on the assessment of potential impacts on agricultural and ecosystem sectors, adjusting for the uncertainty of impact projections.