해수면 상승에 따른 취약성 분석 및 효과적인 대응 정책 수립 II

Abstract

Vulnerability Assessment of the Korean Coast due to Sea-level Rise and Appropriate Response Strategies Ⅱ - Evaluation of coastal inundation and its responses The study deals with sustainability of the Korean coast in the context of the ecosystem and utilization under climate change and sea level rise. The integrated assessment have been done in terms of coastal erosion(2009) and coastal flooding(2010) by sea level rise. Global sea level has been accelerating such as 0.8㎜/yr before 20th century, 1.8㎜/yr in the 20th century, and 3.4㎜/yr after 1993. Though considerable advances have been made in the understanding of sea level rise, there are still much uncertainties in the dynamics of sea level rise, especially in the local prediction and ice sheet dynamics, which makes response policy and its implementation difficult. Recently national strategies have been made for Australia, Japan, Netherlands, and USA based on the integrated national assessment of their coast to climate change. Inundation assessment by future sea level rise has been done within the framework of screening and scoping. The former is adopted with Coastal Vulnerability Index(CVI) useful for coastal planning and the latter adopted IPCC common methodology. The CVI, with six components(geomorphology, coastal slope, relative sea level change, shoreline erosion, mean tide range, mean wave heigh) and developed by the USGS, has been applied for the East coast of Korea(Gangwondo). The range of CVI is 1.826~19.365 with a mean of 6.381 for present condition and increases into 2.887~39.528 with a mean of 14.153 for 2100(1m sea level rise). The very highly vulnerable coast is currently 8.57% and occupies 35.56% of the study coast in 2100. Three case studies including coastal settlement adjacent to coastal driveway, coastal city with flooding risk, and industrial complex by reclamation reveals potential inundation impact due to future sea level rise. The importance of process in responding to the inundation by sea level rise has emphasized due to the high scientific uncertainty in the dynamics of future sea level rise. Also response strategy in terms of planning are provided to minimize the damage of coastal inundation to sea level rise. This study examines local planning strategies to respond sea level rise. Local land use planning can provide critical tools by limiting development in area vulnerable to sea level rise. Korea uses zoning system as main land use planning tool. Among zones, "disaster prevention zone"(which are regulated by the Act on Planning and Use of National Territory) and "natural hazard danger zone"(based on the Hazards Prevention Policy Act) can be applied to sea level rise. However, these zones have been more focused on mitigating natural hazards rather than sea level rise. Thus it is necessary to revise current zoning system to apply to sea level rise. Also, we propose that strategic environmental assessment(SEA) needs to increase the consideration of sea level rise during decision making related to development in coastal areas. Finally, local governments use District Unit Planning(DUP) for the area which has specific problems difficult to be solved by general zoning system. We suggest the use of DUP in managing some coastal areas which are vulnerable to sea level rise and coastal hazards. For this, further study is needed to develop a guideline for sea-level rise risk district unit plan including specific land uses, building design, open space plan, street plans, financial plan etc.