기후변화에 따른 생태계 영향평가 및 대응방안 연구 Ⅱ

Abstract

1. Objectives - To prepare primary data and conduct the modeling of the forest distribution assessment model selected in 2000 -To verify the validity of the modeling results -To assess the change in economical efficiency of the forest through climate change 2. Results and Policy Proposals -There is a need for artificial measurements of 16% of the forest until the year 2100, according to the results on forest distribution change in Korea based on the IPCC IS92a scenarios. -In case that the yearly mean movement growth rate of the forest is below than 0.25km per year, it is estimated that there will be a loss of US$3.5billion annually due to the futility of forest adaptation. North Korea is also to be more affected than the South Korea. -The establishment of the integrated impact assessment is necessary to fully assess the impact of forest and other ecosystem fields. This includes a correspondence plan at national level and continuous establishment of the basic data 3. Implementation Plan -To understand the forest distribution change through climate change at a national level -To estimate the forest distribution change by climate scenarios 4. Strengths of the report -Research was conducted in collaboration with a Japanese research group who are experts on the international impact assessment model -The study was conducted with timely propriety and had reliable research