기후변화영향평가모형 개발

Title
기후변화영향평가모형 개발
Other Titles
물관리 부문을 중심으로
Authors
전성우
Co-Author
정휘철; 이동근; Yuzuru Matsuoka; Hideo Harasawa; Kiyoshi Takahashi
Issue Date
2004-12-31
Publisher
한국환경정책·평가연구원
Series/Report No.
연구보고서 : 2004-10
Page
xv, 147p.
URI
http://repository.kei.re.kr/handle/2017.oak/19160
Language
한국어
Abstract
Development of Impact Assessment Model by Climate Change on Water Resources In recent years, global warming has emerged as a popular issue and became more evident and the impact of global warming in various aspects has been investigated by many institutions. Among the various aspects of global warming, the impact on the terrestrial water cycle has been focused as one of the utmost important climate change policy issues because it directly affects the human settlement and ecosystem. This study collected and reviewed the global and regional climate modeling results to assess the impacts of global warming on the water cycle and developed a Soil Water Balance Model (SWBM) This Model was based on soil moisture changes in order to project the impact on water shortage caused by changes in water resources supply capacity under the changed future climate. Also a raster-based SWBM reflect the soil moisture changes by incorporating such techniques as Thornthwaite and Penman-FAO24 potential evapotranspiration methods to estimate the future potential run-off changes of the major river basins in the Korean peninsula. In order to predict the future climate change and water resources impact, this study employed 4 IPCC/SRES scenarios, 12 GCM results (SRES A1,A2,B1 and B2: CCSRNIES, CSIROMK2, A2 and B2: HadCM3, CCCma) supplied by the IPCC Data Distribution Center and RAMS regional climate model of the National Institute for Environmental Studies of Japan and the SWBM (Vorosmarty et al., 1989, 1998; AIM, 1997) was applied to each 0.05° grid cell over the study area, the entire Korean peninsula. Biophysical datasets as input of SWBM at 0.05° (longitude×latitude) spatial scale were produced over the study area. The current monthly mean temperature and precipitation datasets were respectively produced by the krigging spatial interpolation technique with the Korea Meteorological Administration and UNEP’s Global Historical Climatology Network Data incorporating the lapse rate. The watershed and stream network data were produced with the GTOPO30 digital elevation model in a 30-sec mesh grid. Each produced watershed was assigned by the Pfafstetter watershed coding system (Pfafstetter, 1989) to identify the upstream and downstream watersheds. Lastly, the field capacity dataset was produced with the soil property, vegetation rooting depth and Batjes’ PTF (different pedo-transfer functions) rules. The soil texture data and soil depth data were collected from the detailed soil map and the vegetation data was derived from the land cover classification map of the Korean Ministry of Environment. To acquire the field capacity data in North Korea, the FAO’s World Maximum Soil Water Map (1996) at a 5×5 arc minute resolution was employed. The future runoff change of the present years (1981~1990) and that of the future years (2041~2050) were analyzed by employing SWBM on the area between latitude 33°~44° 30’ and longitude 123° 30’~131° 30’ focusing on 10 major watershed basins in both North Korea and South Korea The major findings in this study are as stated below: First, a numerical simulation with RCM predicts that the temperature rises about 3.7℃ in the summer and 3℃ in the winter while the SRES scenarios project the temperature rise within a range of 1~3.5℃ in the summer and 1~3℃ in the winter in South Korea. In North Korea, the RCM predicts that the temperature rise would be about 4.3℃ in the summer and 2.7℃ in the winter while the SRES scenario projected the mean temperature flux range to be 1~5.3℃ in the winter and 1~3.2℃ in the summer. Second, the RCM and SRES scenario resulted different projections in precipitation variability. While RCM projected the future precipitation variability in South Korea to be about 10% in the summer and 65% in the winter, the SRES scenario projected the mean precipitation flux range to be -10~55% in the winter and -20~20% in the summer. In North Korea, the RCM projected the precipitation variability to be about 30% in the summer and 55% in the winter while the SRES scenario predicted -10~40% in the summer and -20~20% in the winter. Third, among the four IPCC/SRES scenarios, the B1 scenario turned out to be the development road map with the minimum impact on runoff. Moreover, a heavier impact on runoff is predicted in South Korea than North Korea. The RCM generated a higher future runoff projection than the SRES scenarios in general, and showed an opposite result to the SRES projections in North Korea. ? In South Korea, the B1 scenario was predicted to bring the least magnitude of impact on the runoff and precipitation (-5.4%) while the A1 scenario was predicted to bring the most severe impact(16.3%). ? In North Korea, the B1 scenario turned out to associate the least magnitude of impact (0.6%); however, RAMS regional climate model projected a notable 41.9% variability on runoff. ? In the projected runoff changes of 10 major watershed basins in the Korean peninsula, RAMS regional climate model predicts a heavy increase of runoff in the Aplock, Chungcheon, Daedong, and Yesung River basins in North Korea, and Han and Geum River basins in South Korea. ? Under the SRES scenario, in South Korea, the A1 scenario was predicted to lead to serious adverse impacts including floods in the Han River and Geum River basins due to the noticeable increase of rainfall during the rainy season. In North Korea, a decline in the runoff in Tuman River was also predicted.

Table Of Contents

제1장 서론
1. 연구의 배경 및 필요성
2. 연구의 목적 및 범위

제2장 국내외 연구사례
1. 기후변화와 수문기상 인자의 변동
2. 기후변화에 따른 GCM을 이용한 수자원 변화
3. 결정론적 수문모델을 이용하는 방법

제3장 기후변화 시나리오의 검토
1. 개요
2. 기후 시나리오의 종류
가. 유사법에 의한 시나리오
나. 감도분석 목적의 점증시나리오
다. 기후모형의 결과에 기초해 작성한 시나리오
라. 시나리오 연구방법 비교 분석
3. 기후 모형
가. IPCC SRES 전세계기후모형
나. NIES/RAMS 지역기후모형
다. 기후모형결과와 영향평가모형 통합의 문제점
4. 기후 모형의 현재 기후 재현성

제4장 영향평가 방법
1. 개요
2. 입력자료의 구축
가. 현재 기후자료의 구축
나. 미래 기후 시나리오의 작성
다. 유역도 및 하도망도의 구축
라. 최대용수량(Field Capacity) 의 작성
3. 물수지 모형 (Soil Water Balance Model, SWBM)
가. 잠재증발량의 추정
나. 강설모형
다. 지표면 유출의 계산
4. 모형의 검증

제5장 기후변화 영향평가 결과
1. 미래 기후변화
가. 남한 지역
나. 북한 지역
다. 계절별 기후 영향 분석
2. 한반도 주요 유역의 유출변화
가. 남한 지역
나. 북한 지역
다. 기후변화에 따른 유출 변화 영향 평가

제6장 요약 및 제안
1. 요약
2. 연구의 한계 및 제안

참고문헌

부록1 : IPCC SRES 시나리오

부록2 : 잠재증발산량 산정 모형

Abstract

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