기후변화 영향평가 및 적응시스템 구축 Ⅱ

Abstract

In recent years, the parties of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Changes(UNFCCC) recognized the importance of reducing vulnerability to climate change and establishing adaptation policies in addition to the mitigation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) has announced that climate change is already in progress around the world, and it is pressing to assess vulnerability and establish adaptation measures in order to minimize adverse impacts. Given the recognition from international organizations, the tenth Conference of Parties(COP10; Argentina 2004) established the five year work program on adaptation , and twelfth Conference of Parties(COP12; Nairobi 2006) finalized the program ’the Nairobi Work Program on Impacts, Vulnerability, and Adaptation to Climate Change’. The five year work program aims to assist the parties for a better understanding on the climate change impacts, vulnerability assessment, and adaptation and for an informed decision on adaptation measures. Climate change impacts appear in diverse forms by regions and sectors. It is pressing to have reliable assesment measures and adequate adaptation systems. Also, a national adaptation strategy should be agreeable to the international agreement. Thus, this study assesses sectoral impacts by climate change, identifies vulnerability, and establishes an integrated national climate change adaptation system. It also takes a multi- disciplinary approach on sectoral impact assessment with the consideration on its variety and complexity. In the first year, specialized groups closely studied five sectors: National Institute of Agricultural Science and Technology on agricultural sector; Korea University on forest sector; Korea Institute of Industry and Technology Information on industry sector; Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs on public health; and Sejong University on water resource sector. In the second year(current year), vulnerability assessment methods from several international organizations were reviewed such as UNFCCC, IPCC, UNEP. Selecting the most applicable method, sectoral vulnerability has been predicted with A2 scenario for all the sectors. In addition, data and other conditions in each sector differs from another, which leads to adopting quantitative analysis on agriculture, forest, and water resource sectors and qualitative analysis on public health and industry sectors. Agriculture sector analysed domestic rice yield using CERES- Rice model with temperature and precipitation data based on A2 scenario. The baseline years are from 1971-2000. The result shows that the average temperature and precipitation(South Korea only) will rise approximately 5℃ and 17%, respectively, by 2080s. It will cause the decrease of rice yield mainly in coastal areas. Average rice yield throughout South Korea will decrease by 14.9%. Analysis by climate regions shows that out of 19 regions, south-west coast will be ranked first with 20.1% decrease. Forest sector projected future distribution of vegetation using CEVSA model that is the most applicable model selected through this study. Existing conifers will cover only 7,037.74 ㎢(current coverage is 21,483.63 ㎢) and will be likely observed in areas with high altitude in Gangwon-do. Broad-leaved trees will be found mainly in South-west coastal area and will cover 64,697.83 ㎢ increasing from the current 7,408.15 ㎢ coverage. Mixed forest now covers 7,408.15 ㎢ and is projected to occupy 65,809.05 ㎢ appearing inland area of Gangwon-do and the Baekdo Mountain range. Mixed forest is also projected to be seen in some of the South coastal areas and Jeju island. Assuming vulnerable areas to climate change where its tree types are projected to be transformed among current forest, the coverage will be 44,201.95 ㎢, 30.24% of the total 146,187.45 ㎢ study area. Vulnerability of water resource sector was assessed with an indicator approach using flood and drought data. This study focuses on Geumgang Basin. The vulnerability assessment consists of six modules. The first three modules are grouped under current climate assessment(bottom-up approach): analysing past extreme events, constructing vulnerability indicators, and analysing the relationships between extreme events and indicators. The rest can be grouped under future climate assessment(top-down approach): setting the climate change scenario, assessing impacts of climate change on water resource, and analysing variability of extreme events. All six modules are systematically related. The result in Geumgang Basin shows increase of flood damage in most of the basin area. Also, the damage will expand in 2065s comparing to 2025s. Damages from drought will rise 33% of the basin area(9 of the total) while the rest will be less affected by drought. In 2065s, only 10 areas of basin are expected to be affected by droughts. Fewer areas with drought-specific vulnerability is due to increasing precipitation. Public Health sector categorizes health vulnerability of climate change into intense heat, infectious diseases, and flood damage. As in the many developed countries, Korea too will have major public health problems: early deaths of the aged population due to the intense heat and damages from floods. According to the Korea Meterological Research Institute, the threshold temperature will rise as a result of the adaptation to climate change. The most vulnerable two groups to intense heat will be patients suffering from chronical diseases and populations with socioeconomic vulnerability. Particularly, the aged population is of concern in this sector since the group is expected to grow in number. Further studies are required on differentiating inter-relationships between climate factor and health from others. Infectious diseases are related to climate change in terms of their carriers. However, Korea shows relatively low rates of such diseases. Climate change impacts are industry-specific. Three factors are to be evaluated in vulnerability assessment in industry sector: climate change impact, vulnerability, and adaptation capacity. The details of each factor should be specified beforehand. Unlike other industries, it is complicated to objectively assess the factors in manufacture industry. Also, the vulnerability may be hardly distinguishable due to the continuing adaptation efforts from the industry. This study presents factors assessing vulnerability of manufacture industry referring to vulnerability assessment of other industries. Year 2007, the 3rd year for this study, aims to integrate sectoral impacts and vulnerability assessment with the results from the 1st and 2nd year and to construct the national adaptation strategy framework. Particularly, adaptation policy framework will be established to enhance adaptation capacity of already identified climate change vulnerability sectors. The adaptation policy framework will establish sectoral adaptation program, prioritize adaptation measure, and recommend methodologies to enhance the adaptation capability in Korea.