PAGE 모델을 이용한 기후변화의 피해 추정

Abstract

It is vital to estimate potential impacts to establish effective policy measures to deal with climate change. The challenge of this study is to provide a tool to the decision makers to estimate the implications of CO2 emissions over a range of policy options and provide a concise overview of the uncertainties involved. To explore damage costs of various emission scenarios, this study uses PAGE model. This study aims to estimate potential climate change damage costs in Korea. Based on avaiable studies, it could be said with caution that Korea seems to be slightly more sensitive to climate change than EU and USA. To see potential impacts of climate change over uncertain future, this study estimated climate change impacts for three scenarios, A2, B1, and Kyoto scenarios. If no action has been taken, climate change damage cost in Korea could be $million 12,928 ~ 57,900. Cumulative NPV of climate change impacts from 1990 to 2100 would be between $million 143,226 ~ 921,701 depending on emission scenarios. However, this result should be interpreted with extra caution as it draws damage function based on only a few studies available. Results show that an adaptation policy could decrease the degree of climate change impacts significantly. If adaptation policy were implemented, climate change impacts would be decreased by 11,355 million dollars in Korea in 2100. Uncertainty analysis shows that confidence of climate change damage estimation is very low. IPCC(2001) also mentioned sensitivity analysis reveals that climate sensitivity, Korean regional weight factor, global warming half-life has largest impact in estimating climate change impacts in Korea. Further research on this areas would enhance robustness of the result.