환경정책의 경제적 파급효과 분석을 위한 자원순환형 CGE모형 개발

Abstract

We are well aware that economic growth has degraded environment and depleted natural resources. Global warming, deforestation, depletion of the ozone layer and other primary resources threaten of ecosystems and human life. Due to strict environmental regulation, it is becoming important to quantify the costs and benefit of environmental and economic policy intervention to promote open and non-discriminatory global market system together with the sound and sustainable ecosystem. General equilibrium model is widely accepted as a quantitative analtical tool for integrated economics and environment impact analysis in recent years. In spite of many researches on the effects of domestic environmental policy and its economic implications, the environmental policy feedback mechanism at national or global economy level doesn’t seems to fully integrated into a CGE model. This is partly because of the difficulty in collecting and setting up a necessary empirical database. But the main challenge rests still on the way of evaluating and linking material flow to monetary transaction in a CGE model. This research is to elaborate a Korean national CGE model based on the Asia Integrated Model-Material/CGE developed by the National Institute on Environmental Studies in Japan, designed for the evaluation of environmental policy impacts on the national economy under given environmental regulation scheme challenging global environmental issues such as global warming. In the current modeling work for Korean economy in 2000, ○1 we make a social accounting matrix including industrial waste management as an economic activity with its input data, ○2 we elaborate a waste material flow on 19 waste types, balancing waste generation from production activity, recycling through waste management process, and final discharge, and ○3 we construct a national CGE model with GAMS-algebraic subsystems instead of GAMS-MPSGE which was used in AIM/Material/CGE, and solve the model equilibrium with MCP solver. To link the physical energy input with CO2 emission, we get energy demand data from the yearbook of energy statistics 2001 and use the coefficient of carbon ton per unit ton of energy (TC/TOE). Waste generation, recycling and final disposal data are obtained from various statistical sources including census and annual reports of relevant ministries and agencies. Benchmark replication check for the base static model was completed successfully without any problem. The base model can be used for various empirical simulation researches on the impact of environmental and economic policy intervention. The current study does not introduce a dynamic version of the base static model, although it includes variables and parameters necessary to extend the base model in the form of recursive dynamic one. The extension of the base model with a recursive dynamic module remains for further work to be taken.