기후변화 영향평가 및 적응시스템 구축 Ⅲ

Abstract

Abstract Climate Change Impact Assessment and Development of Adaptation Strategies in Korea Over the past few years, many reports have been published and many debates have been held regarding the catastrophes mankind will experience due to the climate change. "An Inconvenient Truth", a 2005 documentary dealing with climate change, the Davos Forum and the Climate Change bill published in England in 2006, the resolutions of the United Nations Security Council and the G8 Summit in the spring of 2007, along with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report : Climate Change 2007, and the fact that the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize was shared by the IPCC and former Vice President of the United States, Al Gore, are all evidence that the dangers of the climate change caused by global warming are quite real and something that we will have to face in the 21st century. Indeed, the fact that the UN Security Council warned that if things are left as they are, climate change will be the cause of serious threats to national safety and security within a few decades, is motivation enough for continuous climate change research. Debate over the effects and adaptation of the international community to climate change started to become mainstream after the 2001 release of the IPCC Third Assessment Report. Most of the early adaptation debates focused on the developing countries that would be most affected by climate change. However, problems due to climate change are not limited to developing countries, but affect the entire planet. As a result, the adaptation debate has been expanded internationally. Climate change adaptation issues took root as mainstream global debate topics after the 12th Conference of Parties(COP12 ; Nairobi 2006) finalized ’the Nairobi Work Program on Impacts, Vulnerability, and Adaptation to Climate Change’. According to the IPCC, even if the level of Green House Gases(GHGs) remain at the level they were in 2000, the gases released prior to then will still effect global warming, and this generation will have no choice but to experience its effects. This is because it takes a long time to stabilize the level of GHGs trapped in the atmosphere. In order to stabilize GHGs, efforts on an international level are required over the next few decades (2030 to 2050) to allow for the release of GHGs to reach their maximum and then decrease thereafter. Mitigation of climate change by reducing the release of GHGs is not a sufficient response to climate change. Without proper measures, it will be difficult to escape the effects of climate change that are already happening. Therefore, it is necessary to accurately predict the changes in the future based on the present conditions and make plans to effectively minimize the damages that will be caused. In this regard, climate change adaptations along with climate change mitigation are both indispensible tools in dealing with climate change. Compared to its importance, debates regarding climate change adaptation only started recently and the prediction that the costs of inaction will be great is already being accepted as truth. However, understanding of the effects and vulnerability of climate change is insufficient in Korea. Analysis of the results of previous studies regarding climate change reveal that most of the studies were scientific analyses conducted in specific fields and therefore, were insufficient for use in policy making. In light of this, the purpose of this study is to analyze the effects and vulnerability of the forecastable categories, using specialized techniques based on the current state of climate change in Korea, formulating policy points from the results and using the results of the analysis to form a systematic plan to develop an effective climate change adaptation strategy. The study took place over a three year period from 2005 to 2007. The three year study focused on the analysis of the effects and vulnerability of climate change in the following categories ; agriculture ecology, forest ecology, industry, and health. Water resources were added in the second year of the study, while ocean-marine life resources were added in the third year of the study. The first year of the study focused on analyzing current studies regarding effects of climate change for each area done in Korea, the second year was spent forecasting the vulnerability of each area and in the third year, a detailed analysis of the effects and vulnerabilities was done in addition to presenting a plan for a combined and comprehensive national adaptation strategy. In order to improve the efficiency of the study and take into account the complexity and diversity of the target categories, this study was carried out in a comprehensive, multi-disciplinary collaborative manner. In addition, a "Climate Change Adaptation Forum" was organized with committee members from the private sector, government, academia, and research circles in order to support this study and provide a horizontally aligned research system to make this collaborative study possible and allow for various opinions to come together in order to help improve the outcome of this study. The summarized results of the third year of the study carried out in 2007 are as follows. First, as with the first and second years of the study, taking into account the complexity and the diversity of both the analysis of the effects and vulnerabilities of climate change and the adaptation plan, the study was carried out as a collaborative effort focused on the institutions and agencies with expertise in each category using an inter-disciplinary approach. Five expert organizations collaborated in the study, including the National Institute for Agricultural Science and Technology (agriculture ecology), Korea University (forest ecology), Korean Institute for Health and Social Affairs (health), Sejong University (water resources), and the National Fisheries Research and Development Institute (ocean and marine life resources) to analyze climate change vulnerabilities and possible adaptation plans in each of their respective categories of expertise. In addition, through a collaboration study with the UNEP, vulnerability studies from Bangladesh, India, South Africa, Brazil, and China were introduced and implications deduced. The results of the collaborative study with the UNEP were released as a UNEP-KEI joint report. Finally, a comprehensive national adaptation strategy devised using each individual analysis was proposed. First, based on the individual vulnerability analysis techniques verified during the second year of the study, individual vulnerability predictions were made. In order to maintain the consistency and unity of the individual studies, A2 and A1B scenarios, scenarios down-scaled to the Korean peninsula, were applied and future climate forecasts were deduced. Also, in accordance with the various factors and data, the modeling approach and numerical approach were used in categories where quantitative vulnerability predictions were possible, such as with agriculture ecology, forest ecology, and water resource categories, whereas in the category of ocean and marine life resource, where a quantitative vulnerability prediction would not be possible, a qualitative approach was used. As for the health category, a qualitative vulnerability analysis was done in the second year of the study and so, an additional vulnerability analysis was not done in the third year of the study. With regard to agriculture ecology, Korean temperature and precipitation deviation data based on the A2 scenario were applied to the CERES-Rice model to predict future rice production (2080s). According to the temperature scenario, compared to recent years (1971-2000), in the 2080s, temperatures will increase by 5℃ (South Korean average) and average precipitation will increase by about 17%, and as a result, rice production is predicted to significantly drop, mostly in the coastal areas. The decrease will be especially great in the South Cholla and South Choongchung provinces. Nationwide, rice quantity is expected to decrease by 14.9% (80.2 kg.10a). Of the 19 rice producing agriculture climate regions, the south-western coastal areas were predicted to show the sharpest decrease at 20.1% (108kg/10a). By province, South Cholla province was predicted to show the sharpest decrease at 19.4% (104.9 kg/10a) while colder provinces such as Gangwon and North Kyungsang were predicted to show milder declinations at 10.2% and 12.4%, respectively. With regard to forest ecology, as an extension to the study conducted in the second year, a more detailed Korean forest vulnerability analysis was done using the CEVSA model based on the A1B scenario and a combination of the vulnerability of plant distribution and ecosystem function was used to predict future forest ecology vulnerability (2071-2100). The results of the prediction show that the vulnerability of forest ecology to the future climate change is generally low with the exception of the central region. Of the entire region, 46% (41,853km) showed low vulnerability, 31% (28,054km2) showed very low vulnerability and 9% (8,305km2) showed moderate vulnerability. Among plant life, 66~77% showed low vulnerability while 12~21% showed high vulnerability. Among plant life with high vulnerability, indeciduous forestry were predicted to be the most vulnerable when compared to other types of plant life making up 21% of the group while 15% were mixed forest and 12% were deciduous forest. With regard to water resources, the Kumkang watershed vulnerability analysis conducted in year two of this study was expanded to include all the watersheds in South Korea. The vulnerability study was carried out in two parts, fluctuation and vulnerability, using the indicator approach to predict the effects of future extreme phenomenon(floods, drought), caused by climate change on watersheds in Korea in 2025s(2011-2045) and 2065s(2051-2080), respectively. Fluctuation analysis was carried out because it can supply valuable information in analyzing future vulnerabilities in connection with the results of climate scenarios. Vulnerabilities were analyzed subjectively by selecting indicators representing sensitivity, amount of exposure, and adaptability of the watershed systems to current climate conditions. Results state that vulnerabilities in 2025s will show similar spatial and vulnerability patterns as vulnerabilities to current climate conditions. Vulnerability to flooding in 2025s was shown to be identical to current vulnerabilities along the mid-lower Han River, Ansung creek, lower Nakdong River and the lower watershed of the Sumjin River being the most vulnerable and upper watershed of the South Han River and mid-upper watershed of the Nakdong River being less vulnerable to flooding. In addition, according to the A2 scenario, the vulnerability to flooding will increase in the Kum River watershed when compared to the current state, while the vulnerability to the Sumjin River watershed and Youngsan River watershed will decrease. Regarding drought, analysis using the A2 scenario predicted relative drought vulnerability in 2025s will remain constant with current vulnerabilities. Highly vulnerable regions will include the upper and lower Han River, Ansung creek and the lower Kum River with the watershed located in the western coast having the highest predicted vulnerability. In addition, vulnerabilities are predicted to increase in the watersheds of the upper and lower Nakdong River and the island regions in the south. Drought vulnerability is also predicted to increase for the Youngsan River and the Sumjin River watershed. In 2065s, relative flood vulnerability will still be high for the lower Han River, Ansung creek, lower Nakdong River and the lower watershed of the Sumjin River while the upper watershed of the South Han River and mid-upper watershed of the Nakdong River will be relatively less vulnerable to flooding. However, it is predicted that flood vulnerabilities for the mid-Nakdong River and lower Kum river watersheds will increase. In conclusion, in 2065s, areas that are vulnerable to flooding today will still be vulnerable, then with the addition of the Kum River and Nakdong River watersheds. Although relative vulnerability to drought in 2065s will be similar to that of current climate conditions, if the level of adaptation is identical with today’s figures, it is predicted that there will be more damage to watersheds relatively more vulnerable to drought when compared to current climate conditions. The Sumjin and Youngsan River watersheds, as in 2025s, have a higher probability of suffering more extensive damages from drought when compared to other watersheds. Damages would be especially higher for island regions less adapted to drought. In conclusion, analysis using the A2 scenario showed that there is the possibility that damages caused by flooding and drought will increase in 2065s. It is predicted that the possibility of damage is not limited to specific regions but will occur similarly throughout Korea. Analysis also showed to be no differences between watersheds in relative vulnerability. Only the Sumjin River and Youngsan River watersheds showed different results from the other watersheds. With regard to health, vulnerability predictions due to climate change were divided into heat waves and contagious diseases. First, in Korea, as well as in developed countries, the deaths of senior citizens caused by heat waves, along with damages from flooding were predicted to be the two biggest public health concerns in the future. Chronic illness patients, senior citizens, and people in the socio-economic lower classes were the most susceptible to the effects of a heat wave and can be classified as the most vulnerable demographic. Of them, senior citizens are the biggest public health concern because of their predicted increase in ratio. However, there are several factors besides the climate factor that effect the health of people classified as the most vulnerable and many of the factors operate in combination with each other and therefore, further collection and analysis of related data as well as studies regarding the correlation between the climate factors and health are needed. Regarding contagious diseases, there is a strong connection between climate change and the habitation and ecology of disease vectors. Korea shows a relatively low incidence rate of contagious diseases, similar to that of developed countries. However, figures from the past 10 years show an increase in Tsutsugamushi, Leptospirosis, and Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome, and incidences of Shigellosis were extremely high in 1999, 2000 and 2003. In the case of Malaria, which has the highest incidence rate between June and September, there was a rapid increase since the late 1990s with a slow regression after 2000 and a 5% increase between 2006 and 2007. Leptospirosis has also shown a rapid increase since 1990. The category of ocean and marine life resources was divided into sea temperature, salinity, sediment, dissolved oxygen, change in ocean current and marine resources. Changes to the ocean surrounding Korea were predicted. In addition, Cho, Kwang-Woo’s (2003) study "Predicted Effects of Global Warming on Water Level in Coastal Category" was also introduced. First, in waters surrounding Korea, the sea surface temperature is rapidly rising and in the years between 1996 and 2004, the temperature rose approximately 0.55℃. On the other hand, subsurface sea temperatures are sharply decreasing, making the thermocline stronger, and bringing it closer to the sea surface which in turn lowers the depth of the mixed surface layer. This would cause the abyssal deposits to become stronger and that shows that atmospheric phenomenon related to global warming can have profound effects on the structure of abyssal deposits. In the case of dissolved oxygen, a decrease in dissolved oxygen in deep sea water and bottom current 1,000 meters below the East sea was shown. However, the change in levels of dissolved oxygen can become a problem, if you take the simultaneous change in water layer structure into consideration. If the change continues, it is difficult to predict how the water layer structure will change over the next 40 to 50 years. This category will require continuous monitoring in the future. In regard to ocean current since 1990, the Tsushima Warm Current has been maintaining its level or a slightly higher level than the average year, and its strength is also clearly increasing. This continuous strengthening of the Tsushima Warm Current will no doubt have an effect on ocean climate change to the coastal areas of Korea. In the case of marine resources, although it is clear that currently, the catch of cold water fish is decreasing while warm water fish are increasing, because of the complex ocean structure of the East sea, it is difficult to predict the future of cold water fish. We do know that the possibility of representative cold water fish, cod, and herring that inhabit the Yellow sea will disappear faster than from the East sea. Aside from them, mackerel, pike, and other fish will move from their current distribution and will collide with subtropical, tropica,l or sub-arctic fish distributions to find more favorable areas. Also, between 1970 and 1980, cuttlefish spawned between October and December, it is predicted that between 2050 and 2099, spawning will take place between December and April. Mackerel, anchovies, cuttlefish and other pelagic fish are predicted to yield a better catch in the East Sea and Yellow Sea instead of the Japanese Pacific due to rising water temperatures. Based on the above vulnerability analysis, existing policies were examined and a combined strategy was developed. In the category of agriculture ecology, adaptation options were presented, organized, and analyzed in 13 adaptation fields including preservation of water, soil, farming, farm house, and economic policy and crops were centered on rice, fruit trees, green house vegetables, farm products, and livestock. Of the existing policies, the agriculture climate disaster measures were judged to be the most relevant, and were analyzed from an adaptation point of view. In the category of forest ecology, the current status of policies related to forest ecology was analyzed and policies and strategies based on the department of forestry’s 2007 detailed plans of major affairs were proposed. Forestry adaptation strategies were largely divided into six fields including, maintainable forest management, protection of forest ecology, preservation, and expansion of forest area, DB construction, and GIS, promotion of forest service usage, and financial and technical support. In the category of water resources, water resources systems and organization and the comprehensive long-term water resources plan (2001-2020) were analyzed and adaptation strategies related to the comprehensive flood control plan from the comprehensive long-term water resources plan were analyzed. Adaptation strategies were divided and presented as flood and drought strategies and each were divided into structural and non-structural adaptation strategies. In the category of health, climate change vulnerability cases and possible adaptation strategies were divided into law, technical, educational recommendations, cultural, and behavioral strategies. In the category of ocean and marine life resources, adaptation strategies were divided into effects of rising water levels, current shift, and marine life resources. First, adaptation strategies regarding rising water levels were focused on coastal areas most likely to be effected by climate change and we found that many measures were applicable including managed retreat, accommodation, and protection. Regarding water current shift, it is important to study the effects of a global-scale climate change on the seas around the Korean peninsula by developing a method to predict long-term change in seawater mass and marine ecology and constructing a system to monitor changes in the ocean and climate around the Korean peninsula. Reviewing the above effects and vulnerability analyses and adaptation strategies, it can be concluded that most Korean studies, aside from certain categories, are largely rudimentary and it is evident that in the mid-long term, actual forecasts using more detailed methods are necessary. Finally, in 2007, a construction plan for a national adaptation strategy based on the first, second, and third year study results and case studies of foreign adaptation strategies were analyzed and presented. To do this, we needed to understand the current government measures for climate change adaptation and for this we examined a national report submitted to the UNFCCC along with a series of comprehensive measures against climate change and found that up until now, adaptation measures in Korea are relatively weak when compared to others. However, there is a possibility for the promotion of several aspects of climate change effects analysis and adaptation strategies at the local level. This study suggests that the establishment of national climate change adaptation strategies be based on risk management and in order to do this Korea needs to ① establish a 5, 10 year mid-long term adaptation strategy with the eventual goal of 2030 with the first five years focusing on scientific research development, ② use a two-track approach to the adaptation strategy, thus simultaneously employing research and development and policy execution, ③ explore regional strategies appropriate to each region, and ④ decide priority through debate at the "adaptation strategy council" (proposed name). Additionally, an adaptation strategy that takes into account each category, balanced adaption of all provincial regions, special consideration for vulnerable groups and keeps in mind the balance between nature and mankind will need to be established. Essential elements for the establishment of a national adaptation strategy can be divided into ① scientific aspects of climate change prediction, category-specific effects and vulnerability analysis, ② establishment and operation of the adaptation strategy. In establishing and operating the adaptation strategy, verification of applicable subjects, adaptation strategy inventory, prioritization of adaptation policy, execution of adaptation and post-execution monitoring and review will need to be included. On the one hand, in order for climate policies to be effective, all policies must simultaneously take into account both mitigation and adaptation while maximizing the effectiveness of the policy by understanding the counter-interest relationship and synergy between the two. In order for this, preliminary research related to finding the optimal relationship between mitigation and adaptation based on the interrelation between the two and economic analysis needs to be carried out. In addition, a decision making system must be presented and established in order to reflect the results of the research and the mutual relationship between mitigation and adaptation must be taken into account in more categories. In conclusion, adaptation to climate change is a necessity and mitigation and adaptation are not interchangeable but must be actively pursued simultaneously. However, because adaptation measures are not immediately visible, helping to improve understanding and initial government leadership is extremely important. This, however, will need to be further expanded regionally in the future. Therefore, we have high hopes regarding "the establishment of national climate change adaptation master plan" the government is trying to promote.