기후변화가 농업생태계에 미치는 영향분석 벼 생산 취약성 평가방법론 연구

Title
기후변화가 농업생태계에 미치는 영향분석 벼 생산 취약성 평가방법론 연구
Authors
유가영
Co-Author
김정은
Issue Date
2007-12-28
Publisher
한국환경정책·평가연구원
Series/Report No.
연구보고서 : 2007-14
Page
72 p.
URI
http://repository.kei.re.kr/handle/2017.oak/19323
Language
영어
Keywords
Crops and climate
Abstract
Abstract Assessing vulnerability to climate change is the first step that should precede setting up appropriate adaptation strategies. This study was conducted to develop a methodology to assess climate change vulnerabilities in rice production in order to provide background for future adaptation policies. Changes in rice yield and agricultural water status were integrated to suggest a rice production vulnerability index because agricultural productivity is closely related to agricultural water use. The study area was the southwestern part of Korea, Jeolla-do, where the percentage of rice yield to total rice production amounts to ca. 35 %. The spatial unit for analysis was conducted at the county (Si, Gun, Gu) level. Future rice yield change was simulated with the CERES-rice model using the downscaled A2 scenario of the Meteorological Research Institute (METRI). Vulnerabilities to climate change are expressed as a function of sensitivity and adaptive capacity based on the assumption that sensitivity and adaptive capacity are independent variables. A sensitivity index to climate change is determined based on the rice yield change ratio which is the percentage of relative changes in rice yield compared to the baseline yield (1971~2000). Yields in 2001, 2030, 2050 and 2080 were projected to decrease by 0.74%, 5.7%, 8.7%, and 16.5%, respectively. Accordingly, the sensitivity index was expected to change from slightly sensitive (-) to highly sensitive (-) towards the end of the 21st century. Increases in negative sensitivity were the greatest in the most southwestern parts of Jeolla-do. An adaptive capacity index is comprised of two aspects; Adaptive Capacity for Drought Stress (ACDS) and Adaptive Capacity for Flood Damage (ACFD). To calculate the ACDS indicator, data for crop water demand and the amount of irrigated water available within the county were organized on a monthly basis from 1991~2003. The ACDS indicator for each county was calculated as the percentage of data points where the irrigated water supply was greater than the crop water demand. The ACDS indicator was compared with SWSCI (Standard Water Storage Capacity Index) and the relationship showed high degree of fit (R2=0.8392) using the exponential function. The ACFD indicator was based on the statistical data of damage cost for agricultural land and products due to heavy rain and typhoons (1991~2003) and had the inverse relationship with damage cost. We used the dimension index proposed by UNDP for standardization of the ACDS and ACFD indicators. Distribution of a vulnerability index showed that there were highly vulnerable areas in the western part and eastern mountainous regions of the study area. The high vulnerability along the eastern seashore region was mainly due to the projected large reduction in rice yield, whereas the high vulnerability areas in the eastern inlands originated from the high susceptibility to flood damage. Adaptation strategies suggested to reduce vulnerabilities are early rice transplanting, species substitution, and possibility of dual cropping. Especially, the results showed that early rice transplanting had greatly reduced rice production vulnerabilities in the study area. The applicability of the options to the study area was preliminarily tested. This study provides a guideline to assess vulnerability to climate change that can be applied to other sectors. The suggested index of vulnerability is expected to be a useful tool to help set up location-specific adaptation strategies. However, to improve the suggested rice production vulnerability index to more comprehensive agricultural vulnerability indicator to climate change, changes and impacts due to sea level rise, agricultural water quality, and soil nutrient capacity, etc. should also be considered and incorporated in the vulnerability index.

Table Of Contents

- Contents -
FOREWORD
Abstract
Chapter 1. Introduction
1. Background
2. Research scope and objectives
Chapter 2. Literature Review
1. Definition of vulnerability to climate change
2. Methodologies for vulnerability assessment
2.1 Assessment of overall vulnerability to climate change using proxy variables in many sectors
2.2 Assessment of agricultural vulnerability to climate change
2.3 Possible indicators to represent agricultural water status
2.3.1. OECD (2003)’s agri-environmental indicators
2.3.2 Drought index
2.3.3 Index to represent flood damage
2.3.4 A method to consider crop water demand and water availability
2.4 Case study of rice yield sensitivity in Korea
2.5 Case study of crop yield vulnerability to climate change
Chapter 3. Method and Tools
1. Study area
2. Climate change scenario
3. Simulation of rice yield by CERES-rice model
4. Rice production sensitivity to climate change
5. Adaptive Capacity (AC) in agricultural water status
5.1 Crop water demand
5.2 Water supply from reservoir data
5.3 Matching spatial scales of data sets for crop water demand and water supply
5.4 Calculating an adaptive capacity proxy variable for agricultural drought stress (ACDS indicator)
5.5 Calculating an adaptive capacity proxy variable based on flood damage costs (ACFD indicator)
6. Calculation of rice production vulnerability to climate change
Chapter 4. Results and Discussion
1.Rice production sensitivity
2. Adaptive capacity
2.1 Adaptive capacity for drought stress (ACDS) Index
2.1.1 Crop water demand
2.1.2 Agricultural water supply
2.1.3 ACDS indicator
2.2 Adaptive capacity for flood damage (ACFD) indicator
2.3 Adaptive capacity in agricultural water status (AC index)
3. Vulnerability index for rice production
4. Adaptation options
4.1. Adjustment of rice transplanting dates.
4.2. Other adaptation options
Chapter 5. Summary and Conclusions
References
Appendix I
Appendix II
Abstract in Korean

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