기후변화 취약성 평가지표의 개발 및 도입방안

Title
기후변화 취약성 평가지표의 개발 및 도입방안
Authors
유가영
Co-Author
김인애
Issue Date
2008-12-30
Publisher
한국환경정책·평가연구원
Series/Report No.
연구보고서 : 2008-05
Page
88 p.
URI
http://repository.kei.re.kr/handle/2017.oak/19374
Language
한국어
Abstract
Abstract Development and application of a climate change vulnerability index Vulnerability assessment plays a vital role in setting up climate change adaptation policies. The concept of vulnerability, however, is difficult to functionally define due to the fact that vulnerability itself includes many aspects (biophysical, socioeconomic, etc.) in various sectors. As such, much research on vulnerability has used indicators which are useful for standardization and aggregation. Although there are a few studies on sectoral vulnerability assessment in Korea, we have very few studies to develop and apply cross-sectoral climate change vulnerability indicators. The objective of this study is to develop an index to assess the climate change vulnerability of each local government (Si, Do) in Korea. Identification of local vulnerabilities and analysis of the components comprising the vulnerability would help local governments develop appropriate and sound adaptation policy frameworks. As the climate change vulnerability index by Moss et al.(2001) was not applicable to assess local vulnerabilities in Korea, we decided to develop a modified index adjusted for the Korean context. The conceptual framework of climate change vulnerability was defined as a function of climate exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Then, we collected statistical data on 33 variables assumed to comprise climate change vulnerability by 16 local governments (Si, Do). The time spans of the variables are from 1986 to 2006. After collecting statistical data, data was standardized using the dimension index suggested by UNDP (2006). A Vulnerability-Resilience Indicator (VRI) was calculated using Moss et al. (2001)'s method. Please note that high VRI indicates low vulnerability because our VRI combines negative values of climate exposure and sensitivity and positive values of adaptive capacity at the same time. The local governments (Si, Do) of lower VRI (highly vulnerable) are generally located in island and coastal areas, whereas regions of higher VRI (moderately or low vulnerable) are generally concentrated in urban areas. Low vulnerability in urban area was mostly explained by high economic capacity. To verify the VRI suggested in this study, data on casualty due to extreme weather by NEMA (National Emergency Management Agency) and VRI were compared and the Pearson Correlation Coefficient was calculated. The output showed that the correlation coefficient between casualty due to extreme weather events (NEMA data) and VRI was 0.62. This suggests that the indicator developed was verified as a useful tool to explain local variances of climate change vulnerability. To identify the major variables and to explain the trend in whole data set, principal component analysis (PCA) was conducted (MatLab, 2006). The result of PCA showed that the first 5 principal components (PC 1~PC 5) explained approximately 72% of the total variance. The PC 1 was correlated with variables of infrastructure, GDP, and the variables of human health. The PC 2 and PC 3 were closely related to climate exposure data (precipitation and temperature), forest areas, and human health. This study provided the information on regional vulnerability to climate change in Korea. This study would support the need to set up regionally- adjusted adaptation policies and provide the quartitative backgrounds for policy prioritization. Future studies should focus on further application of VRI to prepare regionally-adjusted guidelines for setting up adaptation strategies. Projections of future vulnerabilities for each local government would also help set up medium- to long-term adaptation policies.

Table Of Contents

차 례
제1장 서 론
1. 연구배경 및 목적
2. 연구 흐름도
제2장 기후변화 취약성의 이론적 배경
1. 취약성 개념
가. 일반적 취약성의 개념
나. 기후변화 취약성의 개념
2. 취약성 평가방법론
3. 취약성 지표
가. 지표의 개념 및 표준화 방법
나. 기후변화 취약성 지표 연구

제3장 기후변화 취약성 평가지표 개발을 위한 방법론
1. 기후변화 취약성 평가지표의 개념적 틀
2. 국제적으로 제안된 취약성 지표의 국내 적용
3. 자료의 수집
4. 취약성 평가지표의 계산
가. 자료의 표준화
나. 부호의 결정
다. 연 산
5. 기후변화 취약성과 자연재난 취약성 자료 간의 비교
6. 통계분석
가. 주성분 분석(Principal Component Analysis)
나. 상관성 분석 및 정규분포 검토
제4장 기후변화 취약성 평가지표의 도출
1. 기존 취약성 지표의 국내 적용상의 문제점
2. 기후변화 취약성 평가지표의 개발
가. 자료의 기초통계량
나. 표준화 방법에 따른 결과 분석
다. 카테고리별 계산결과
3. 자연재해에 따른 초과 사망자수 자료의 분석
4. 제안된 기후변화 취약성 평가지표의 검증
5. 기후변화 취약성 평가지표를 구성하는 자료에 대한 주성분 분석
가. 전체 시 · 도 자료의 주성분 분석결과
나. 각 시 · 도별 주성분 분석
제5장 기후변화 취약성 평가지표의 활용방안
1. 취약성-탄력성 지표(VRI)를 구성하는 요소분석
2. 기후변화 취약성 분석도에 기반을 둔 지역별 적응대책 수립의 방향성 제시
제6장 결론 및 제언
참고 문헌
Abstract

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