기후변화 적응 강화를 위한 사회기반시설의 취약성 분석 및 대응방안 연구 I

Title
기후변화 적응 강화를 위한 사회기반시설의 취약성 분석 및 대응방안 연구 I
Authors
명수정
Issue Date
2009-12-31
Publisher
한국환경정책·평가연구원
Series/Report No.
녹색성장연구보고서 : 2009-10
Page
164 p.
URI
http://repository.kei.re.kr/handle/2017.oak/19435
Language
한국어
Abstract
Assessing Vulnerability to Climate Change of the Physical Infrastructure in Korea and Developing Adaptation Strategies I Climate change has impacts on not only the average temperature rise but also the intensity and frequency of extreme events such as typhoons and intensive rains. It is reported that the frequency and intensity of floods and other natural hazards in Korea are steadily increasing. In its fourth climate change assessment report published in 2007, the IPCC(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) expressed their concern about the impact of climate changes and stated that climate change adaptation is as important as climate change mitigation. To strengthen the climate change adaptation capacity, it is necessary to develop appropriate adaptation strategies with infrastructure management because generally facilities related to human settlements are vulnerable to climate changes. Therefore, this study assessed the vulnerabilities of Korea's physical infrastructures to provide basic data for developing strategies to strengthen its capacity to adapt to climate changes. This study also conducted a spatial analysis of the climate change exposure of infrastructures along with a vulnerability assessment through a survey of professionals. The spatial analysis, which was conducted to figure out how much infrastructures are exposed to climate changes, used the temperature and precipitation data from A1B climate change scenario. It is projected that not only average temperature but also the severity of extreme cold and heat waves will increase, and the amount of precipitation is also projected to rise in the future. It is necessary to prepare for these extreme events in advance because even the rain fall intensity and droughts are also going to be severe in the future. The degree of infrastructures' exposure to climate changes was spatially analyzed focusing on the 2045s (2030-2060) climate change projection by categorizing 5 levels of each climate event over the country. Most infrastructures were found to be exposed to all levels of change (from level 1 to level 5), and the degree of exposure to the severe cold and heat waves, and to droughts was relatively high. This is due to the facts that the characteristics of climate changes differ from event to event and from region to region, and that infrastructures are distributed all over the country. However, since the climate change risk is different by each climate event and each infrastructure, it does not necessarily mean that the degree of exposure reported in the present study does correlate with the degree of risk. Since the results show that the severe climate changes are certain to occur, it is necessary for the overall infrastructures of the country to prepare for the climate changes. In the future, studies should be conducted on risk potentials by each climate event on infrastructures. Additional detailed vulnerability assessments should be done to develop strategies to adapt to climate changes. The vulnerability assessment was conducted to diagnose the infrastructures' vulnerability and to point to a direction for policy making regarding risk management for future climate changes. It was implemented by surveying professionals in the fields of infrastructure and climate change science. The questionnaire asked respondents questions with respect to the consequences of each climate change event, the urgency of adaptation to climate changes, and the scale of investment to the adaptation to each climate change event. The seven climate change events included 'the average temperature rise', 'the sea level rise', 'the typhoons and storm surges', 'the floods and the heavy rain', 'droughts', 'severe cold', and 'heat waves'. The results showed that the respondents expected the possibilities of 'average temperature rise' and 'floods and heavy rain' to be relatively higher than others. The general vulnerability of the whole infrastructures is the highest to 'the typhoons and storm surges' and 'the floods and the heavy rain'. The respondents indicated that river facilities and irrigation, and housing are generally vulnerable to climate changes. As for the facility-to-event vulnerability levels, the highest risk was expected in river-related facilities exposed to 'the floods and heavy rain', followed by the ports exposed to 'the typhoons and storm surges', by the ports to 'the sea level rise', and by the roads exposed to 'the floods and heavy rain'. This study also examined the sensitivity, the adaptive capacity and the risk level of each facility to each climate change event, and found that river facilities, housing, and sea ports are most vulnerable. The results found in this study were consistent with the history of natural disasters in Korea. Therefore, it is necessary to develop appropriate infrastructure management strategies. To prepare for the risk situations caused by climate change, it is necessary to strengthen the nation's adaptive capacity. Infrastructures are influenced by climate changes, but they can be tools to adapt to the climate changes at the same time. The following directions are suggested for policy making. First, it is suggested to invest into and manage the vulnerable infrastructures based on the priority found by this study. Also, it is a good strategy to invest first into the vulnerable infrastructures that are high in risks and need urgent adaptations. Investing in vulnerable ones that are small in terms of the investment size can be another good strategy. Secondly, environment impact assessment should be intensified for the infrastructures which have great influences on the society when negative effects of climate changes occur. It is necessary to raise the standards of the infrastructures as well as establishing special standards, to develop engineering technologies in order to reduce the damages, and to develop measures in order to upgrade the safety of the infrastructures. Thirdly, climate change vulnerability should be continuously monitored with more accurate information such as detailed climate change scenario etc. Fourthly, it is necessary to establish a social system for the efficient natural hazard management to cope with the severe climate changes of the future. The vulnerability assessment implemented in this study was not a structural assessment with field visits, but an assessment based on surveying professionals. Therefore, there were limitations to extract detailed information of vulnerability for particular infrastructures. The results could be different if different vulnerability methods were applied. The results do not mean the absolute vulnerability since this study assessed the general vulnerability to find out the priority in infrastructure management. Further studies should be conducted focusing on assessing the vulnerability of individual infrastructures, spatial analysis using more detailed climate change data, and economic analysis of infrastructures and climate changes in the future.

Table Of Contents



제1장 서 론
1. 연구의 필요성 및 목적
2. 연구의 내용 및 방법
가. 연구내용
나. 연구방법
제2장 기후변화와 사회기반시설
1. 기후변화
가. 기후변화 현상
나. 기후변화 시나리오
다. 기후변화 전망
2. 사회기반시설
가. 사회기반시설의 정의 및 범주
나. 우리나라 주요 사회기반시설 현황
3. 기후변화가 사회기반시설에 미치는 영향
가. 자연재해에 의한 피해
나. 자연재해로 발생한 피해 사례
4. 기후변화와 사회기반시설 관련 해외 대응 사례
가. 유럽
나. 호주
다. 북미
라. 일본
제3장 사회기반시설의 기후변화 취약성 평가
1. 기후변화 취약성 평가 이론
2. 사회기반시설의 기후변화 노출 분석
가. 기후 시나리오와 공간 분석
나. 사회기반시설의 기후변화 노출 전망
3. 전문가 설문조사를 통한 기후변화 취약성 평가
가. 기후사상 및 대상 기반시설 선정
나. 전문가 설문조사
다. 기후변화 취약성 평가
라. 취약성 평가 결과
마. 취약성 평가 결과와 재해이력
제4장 사회기반시설 강화를 통한 기후변화 적응
1. 취약 사회기반시설의 강화
2. 사회기반시설 강화를 위한 제도 개선
가. 시설기준의 상향 조정 및 특별기준 제정 검토
나. 기존 시설물의 보강기준 제정 및 유지?관리
다. 영향평가제도를 통한 기반시설의 강화와 기후변화 적응
3. 기후변화 모니터링 및 지속적인 취약성 평가
가. 기후변화 모니터링 및 예측 연구
나. 기후변화 취약성 및 경제성 평가
다. 피해 저감공법 개발 등 시설물의 안전성 제고 방안 마련
4. 자연재해 대응체계의 개선
제5장 결론 및 제언
1. 결론
2. 제언

참고문헌
부록 1: 전문가 설문조사 양식
부록 2: 사회기반시설 현황
부록 3: 강도분류에 따른 열대태풍에 대한 연간 노출(Saffir-Simpson)
부록 4: 강우빈도 해석에 사용된 분포형
부록 5: 가뭄지수 평가 방법
Abstract

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