기후변화에 따른 연안역의 해역-육역 통합 범람 예측 방안에 관한 기초 연구

Title
기후변화에 따른 연안역의 해역-육역 통합 범람 예측 방안에 관한 기초 연구
Other Titles
해석모형 비교ㆍ분석을 중심으로
Authors
김경준
Co-Author
조광우; 정태성
Issue Date
2009-12-22
Publisher
한국환경정책·평가연구원
Series/Report No.
기초연구보고서 : 2009-19
Page
82 p.
URI
http://repository.kei.re.kr/handle/2017.oak/19464
Language
한국어
Abstract
Preliminary Study on Prediction of Climate Change Induced Flooding in Marine and Terrestrial Areas in Coastal Zone: A Comparative Analysis of Inundation Models Previous impact and adaptation studies on climate change induced coastal inundation have not provided an integrated analysis of the various factors affected by climate change. However, coastal flooding, like fluvial flooding, is significantly affected by changes in rainfall patterns. This indicates that terrestrial factors like river flooding must also be taken into account when assessing the vulnerability of coastal regions to climate change induced floods. Accordingly, the goal of this study is to devise flooding models that can be used to establish a prediction methodology that fully considers terrestrial factors, including the river discharge, in addition to marine factors induced on the open seas. First, changes in climate drivers induced by climate change were investigated through the existing literature. The results of this review indicated that both marine factors (including sea levels and wave height etc.), as well as precipitation were undergoing significant change. Existing research also indicated that Korea has been confronted with increasingly intense rainfall events, a trend that will continue in the future. A large number of hydrodynamic models exist that can predict inundation extents. Among these models, we looked for one that that would provide both accurate results, as reflected in the real world, as well as economic value when used in devising national policy. Accordingly, this study undertook research on case studies in impact assessments to devise a model suitable for assessment of vulnerability to flooding in coastal areas. Several methodologies, were discussed, including HEC-RAS and LISFLOOD-FP, both one dimensional hydrodynamic models, as well as MD_SWMS, a two dimensional model. As a result, it was found that terrestrial factors like fluvial flooding should be taken into full consideration along with marine factors like sea level rises, storm surges, and tidal effects when assessing flood vulnerability in coastal areas due to climate change. The models and assessment schemes introduced in this study can thus be deployed when choosing models for assessment of coastal flooding vulnerability due to climate change.

Table Of Contents



제1장 서 론
제2장 기후변화로 인한 연안역의 범람 평가 사례
1. 국내
가. “지구온난화에 따른 한반도 주변의 해수면 변화와 그 영향에 관한 연구 (II)”(한국환경정책?평가연구원, 2002)
나. “서해안 해수면 상승에 따른 영향 및 대책”(충남발전연구소, 2008)
다. “해안침수예상도 시범제작”(국토해양부, 2006~2008)
2. 국외
가. “Analysis of global impacts of sea-level rise: a case study of flooding”(Nicholls, 2002)
나. “Impact of sea level rise and storm surges on a coastal community”(McInnes et al., 2003)
다. “Quantified analysis of the probability of flooding in the Thames estuary under the imaginable worst-case sea level rise scenario”(Dawson et al., 2005)
라. “Modelling future landscape change on coastal floodplains using a rule-based GIS”(Brown, 2006)
마. 취약성 지수(Vulnerability Index) 관련 연구
바. DINAS-Coast 와 DIVA
제3장 기후변화에 의한 한반도 연안역 기후 외력의 변화
1. 기후변화에 따른 외력의 변화와 영향
2. 기후변화로 인한 외해 쪽 기후 외력의 변화
가. 해수면
나. 태풍
3. 기후변화로 인한 육역의 기후 외력의 변화(강우)
제4장 해역-육역 통합 범람 모형
1. 범람 해석을 위한 수치모형과 형태
2. 홍수 범람 모의에 적용 가능한 모형 소개
가. HEC-RAS와 HEC-GeoRAS
나. LISFLOOD-FP 모형
다. MD-SWMS 모형
3. 통합 모의를 위한 모형 검토 및 고려 사항
가. 지형학적 인자 고려
나. 육역 기인 홍수량 고려
다. 모형의 경제성
라. 자료의 가용성
제5장 결론

참고 문헌
부록 MD_SWMS SToRM 사용
Abstract

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