기후변화 통합영향평가모형 체계 개발

Title
기후변화 통합영향평가모형 체계 개발
Other Titles
정책연계모형개발을 중심으로
Authors
전성우
Issue Date
2010-12-31
Publisher
한국환경정책·평가연구원
Series/Report No.
연구보고서 : 2010-02
Page
140 p.
URI
http://repository.kei.re.kr/handle/2017.oak/19474
Language
한국어
Abstract
Development of Integrated Impact Assessment System to Support Climate Change Policy for Mitigation and Adaptation in Korea In recent years, climate change has become one of the most important global issues. Actions for adaptation and mitigation are urgently required to reduce the adverse impacts of climate change. To this end, the governmental action plan for adaptation to climate change in Korea entitled “Korea's National Climate Change Adaptation Strategies (2011~2015)” was published in 2010 to adapt to climate change in a comprehensive manner at the national level. However, this action plan therein was not established based on the quantitative information from the climate change impact assessments. Furthermore, the plan needs to consider multi-disciplinary and socio-economic impacts of various sectors. Different data formats and designs impose enormous challenges in planning the responses to climate change such as mitigation and adaptation. This report proposes an integrated impact modeling system for supporting climate change policy through the regional assessment of potential impacts of climate change. The results of the efforts this year include a future research plan for the next four-year (2011-2014) project. We will examine the information in detail to develop an integrated assessment system including agriculture, forestry/ecosystem, disaster, water resources sectors, etc. First, we will develop sectoral models and prepare the required dataset for assessing regional impacts during a short-term period (2011-2012). Then the impact function by sector will be prepared to assess the efficiency of climate change policy implementation by national levels. A simplified result from the sectoral impact function represents the quantitative impact of climate change from the physical model by sector. Major findings from this year’s efforts can be summarized as follows: collection of basic information about relevant models to assess climate change impacts through critical reviews of previous studies, and; construction of a road map to develop an integrated impact assessment system for supporting decision-making process of mitigation and adaptation policies at the regional as well as the national level. To develop the proposed system, sectoral impact assessment based on a well-accepted database for future physical and socio-economic changes, a consistent method to assess sectoral impacts, and integration of climate policy with sectoral results in deep uncertainty should be considered. The second-year study will focus on the assessment of potential impacts on agricultural and ecosystem sectors, adjusting for the uncertainty of impact projections.

Table Of Contents


제1장 서 론
1. 연구의 배경과 목적
가. 연구의 배경
나. 연구의 목적
2. 연구의 범위 및 방법
가. 연구의 범위
나. 연구의 방법
제2장 기후변화 영향 및 취약성 평가의 개념과 모델 검토
1. 기후변화 영향, 적응, 취약성의 관계
2. 모형기반의 기후변화 영향 및 취약성 평가 방법론
가. 부문별 영향평가 방법론
나. 부문간 연계 영향평가모형
다. 모델분석 시사점
제3장 국내외 기후변화 적응에 관한 사례 및 동향
1. 기후변화 영향 및 취약성 평가 현황
가. 국외의 영향 및 취약성 평가 사례
나. 국내의 영향 및 취약성 평가 사례
2. 국내외 기후변화 적응대책 동향
가. 국외의 기후변화 적응대책 구축 사례
나. 국내의 기후변화 적응대책 사례 및 동향
제4장 기후변화 통합영향평가 체계 개발
1. 기후변화 통합영향평가 체계 개발 추진체계 및 전략
가. 영향예측수법의 고도화 전략
나. 다른 연구 분야와 연계강화 전략
2. 기후변화 통합영향평가 체계 개발 연구내용 및 일정
가. 기후변화 대응정책지원을 위한 통합영향평가모형 추진 체계
나. 기후변화 대응정책지원을 위한 통합영향평가모형 추진 방법
제5장 요약 및 제언
1. 요약
2. 제언
참고문헌
Abstract

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