국제 탄소시장 동향 및 전망

Abstract

World Carbon Market Outlook and Forecast Carbon market has emerged as an effective mean to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emission both in terms of the amount reduced and the quality of reduction. The importance of the carbon market is intensifying on daily basis with the legally binding targets set as 2008 by the Kyoto Protocol and the launching of the pioneering EU-ETS in 2005. Carbon market is not only a policy implication to reduce GHG but also a key market mechanism that can be used to reduce national GHG levels and address climate change issues. However, at present, there is a lack of a systematic research that looks into the trends and the prospects of the domestic (Korean) carbon market. Futhermore, it is essential to conduct a preliminary research which encompasses the structure and operating principles as well as the price forecasts of the Korean carbon market. The purpose of this study is to understand the structure, trends, and the price forecasts of the international carbon markets to suggest policy implications to Korean decision makers prior to active participation of in international carbon markets in the upcoming future. Literature review and analysis of carbon market-related data from World Bank, Point Carbon and other institutions were performed. Furthermore, time-series analysis was done using estimates derived from energy demand and emissions to predict carbon prices. In Section 2, the carbon markets were sorted according to the different properties to investigate the market conditions. Such process allows a better understanding of the international carbon market structure and operation methods. Under the default market mechanism conditions of emission markets, markets were sorted according to emissions quota permits and GHG reduction businesses generating new carbon credits. Operating practices were examined in the emission quota markets such as EU ETS, CCX and other major emission markets to study the properties of the issued CER. Assigned emission market and NAMAs, which is drawing a great deal of attention as an alternative approach, has been researched to understand its contents and the related debates in the international community. Finally, the section also includes information related to the roles and the mutual relationships between the key players such as the government, corporations, investment banks and etc. Section 3 examines about the analysis of international carbon trading market trends and prices trends in relations to the policy environment for each of the major emission markets. EU ETS, one of the major emission markets, has seen a significant rise in terms of trade volume, almost doubling the figures from the previous year to 6.3billion tons. Traded prices were stabilized after a sharp fall in early 2009 due to the financial crisis. This proves that despite the uncertainty of the post-Kyoto Protocol and the financial crisis responsible for the fluctuation of prices, EU ETS ‘phase 1’ has successfully underwent the trial and error process to reach stability to a certain extent. However, project emission trading markets which witnessed continuous uptrend slightly subsided in terms of the trade volume. This could be associated with to the stricter evaluation process of the CDM businesses and the resulting delay in the new CER supply and the increased risks involved. In Section 4, the determinant of the carbon emission prices were examined. The key factors of emissions quota include oil prices, effect of energy substitution, climate, economic conditions, and limits of cap. In the case of CER, the price level of EUA and level of risk associated with CDM business.