고온으로 인한 사망 누적효과 분석방법론 연구

Title
고온으로 인한 사망 누적효과 분석방법론 연구
Authors
하종식
Co-Author
신용승; 배현주
Issue Date
2010-12-15
Publisher
한국환경정책·평가연구원
Series/Report No.
Working Paper : 2010-09
Page
35 p.
URI
http://repository.kei.re.kr/handle/2017.oak/19526
Language
한국어
Abstract
Methodology study for the cumulative effect of high temperature on mortality In many cases, the effect of an environmental exposure event is not restricted to the period when it occurs. Understanding the extent to which high-temperature exposure hastens the occurrence of health outcomes is a key to interpreting public health risks correctly and developing appropriate intervention programs related to heat. In this study, we reviewed methodologies for constraining the lagged effects in relationship between high temperature and mortality. And then, we explored distributed lag effects in the relationship between high temperature and mortality in summer (June?August) in Seoul, South Korea, from 1991 to 2008. A Poisson regression model adapted for time-series data was used to estimate short-term heat-related mortality impacts. To examine the distributed lag effects, we fitted a constrained distributed lag model that included lagged exposure variables as covariates, applying a function of days of lag according to B-spline bases. The effects on mortality caused by high-temperature exposure continued for about 5 days, and slight deficit effects after the initial mortality increases were observed, even if not initially apparent. Thirty days after high-temperature exposure, the cumulative effects were still high in Seoul. This study shows a pattern of distributed lag effects of high-temperature exposure that the single-day model could not identify. As future work, the controls for air pollution and change of threshold on subsequent days after exposure are needed. Our results confirm that summer high temperature has an effect on mortality, not advancing the date of adverse events by a few days. Ultimately, it suggests that public health programs be amended to allow for differential high-temperature effects spread over multiple days. Key words: high temperature, distributed lag effects, constrained distributed lag model, cumulative effects, mortality

Table Of Contents


제1장·서 론
1. 연구 배경 및 목적
2. 연구 절차 및 내용
제2장·문헌조사 및 추정 방법론
1. 고온으로 인한 사망률 이동 선행연구
2. 고온­사망 관련성에서 사망률 이동 효과 추정
가. 시계열 연구의 통계 모형
나. 사망률 이동 효과 추정
1) 개별 지연 모형
2) 제약되지 않은 분포 지연 모형
3) 계층 분포 지연 모형
4) 다항함수 분포 지연 모형
5) B-spline 분포 지연 모형
제3장·고온으로 인한 사망 누적효과
1. 분석 방법
가. 분석 자료
나. 통계 모형 및 분석 절차
2. 분석 결과
가. 기초 통계
나. 기존 통계 분석 방법론을 이용한 분석
다. 고온 노출 후 지연되는 사망 영향
라. 누적효과
마. 추정 방법론 고찰
제4장·결론 및 제언
1. 요약
2. 향후 분석 방향
3. 정책 제언
참고 문헌
Abstract

Appears in Collections:
Reports(보고서) Working Paper(기초연구)
Files in This Item:
Export
RIS (EndNote)
XLS (Excel)
XML

qrcode

Items in DSpace are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.

Browse