탄소세 도입 및 에너지세제 개편방안 연구

Abstract

To be well prepared against being included in the countries which are committed to cut greenhouse gas emissions and minimize social cost by internalizing the cost of air pollution and traffic congestion in market price, it is necessary to introduce carbon tax and restructure the current energy tax system in an environment-friendly manner. For this, it is necessary to introduce carbon tax from the short-term perspective and come up with a tax reform plan which reflects social cost from the mid- and long-term perspective. If carbon tax is introduced to Korea, it is needed to tax all upstream energy sectors. In other words, carbon tax will be imposed on transport oil (gasoline, diesel oil, LPG butane, CNG, etc.), heating oil (kerosene, LPG propane, etc.) and industrial and power-generating fuel (heavy oil, LNG, bituminous coal). Even though carbon tax is imposed on all economic sectors (ex: transport, public household, commercial sector, industry, power generation, etc.), it is required to come up with a tax cut system to avoid double taxation for those who are under additional burden such as Emission Trading System(ETS) and Target Setting System. At introduction of carbon tax, new tax items should be adopted in consideration of domestic and international conditions, industrial competitiveness and burden to the public. First, low tax rates (ex: KRW 1-2 trillion of annual tax revenue) should be imposed. Then, they should be gradually adjusted with inflation or GDP growth rates. The goal of carbon tax is not to increase tax revenues, but to reduce CO2 emissions. Therefore, negative economic effects caused by the new tax (ex: decrease in industrial competitiveness, aggravation of income redistribution, etc.) should be minimized. Because carbon tax causes additional tax burden, its effects can differ depending on how the tax revenues are operated. It appears that if carbon tax is linked with tax cut, investment expenditures or income supports which reduce economic efficiency, economic effects(ex: GDP, etc.) would be minor with great greenhouse reduction effects. Because carbon tax could be intensively imposed on high energy-consumption industries with great trade dependency such as chemical, steel and shipbuilding industries, it is necessary to adjust conventional tax items and burdens such as reduction of corporate income tax and increase in investment tax credit, etc. In addition, it is necessary to review the use of carbon tax revenues for job creation and support on R&D expenditures for green technology innovation. Korea needs to promote an environment-friendly tax reform in an energy sector except for Emission Trading System and Target Setting System which are under discussion as means of the greenhouse gas emission reduction policy. In terms of a basic direction for the tax reform, it is necessary to promote various policy means such as Emission Trading System, Greenhouse Gas & Energy Target Setting System and Energy Efficiency Grading System in a policy-mix manner to make the public accept them without too much resistance and minimize unexpected side effects. Then, the ultimate goal (reduction of greenhouse gas emissions) could be achieved. In particular, if there is a sharp conflict of opinion among policy makers, it is realistic to come up with several auxiliary policies to achieve the ultimate goal. In this sense, it is necessary to come up with a system which encourages economic agents to join additional greenhouse gas emissions as well as a proper combination of Emission Trading System and Target Setting System and the introduction of carbon tax.

향후 국내 이산화탄소 총 배출량은 2005∼2020년 기간에 연평균 2.2%의 증가율을 기록할 것으로 전망되며, 2020년 우리나라 이산화탄소 총 배출량은 8억 1,720만 tCO2를 나타낼 것으로 예상된다. 이는 2005년의 5억 9,110만 tCO2에 비해 1.4배 증가한 양이며, 특히 발전부문과 수송부문에서 증가율이 높게 나타날 전망이다. 이에 정부는 2020년까지 온실가스 배출에 대해 기준 성장 시나리오(BAU) 전망치 대비 30% 감축안(2억 4,520만 tCO2 감축)을 대내외에 공표하여 이를 달성하기 위한 여러 가지 수단을 강구 중이다. 또한 세부 이행 목표를 세워 7개 부문 25개 업종별로 세분화하여 올해 9월에 감축목표를 설정하였다. 그러나 정부의 주요 감축수단을 보면 저탄소 기술개발, 저탄소 제품 및 에너지 보급 확대에 국한하고 있으며 탄소세 도입 및 에너지세제 개편 등 에너지 수요관리 대책이 결여되어 이에 대한 보완대책이 필요하다. 우리나라가 온실가스 의무 감축국에 편입되는 상황에 대비하고, 대기오염 및 교통혼잡 등 에너지 사용으로 발생하는 사회적 비용을 시장가격에 내재화하여 사회적비용을 최소화하기 위해서는 선제적으로 탄소세 도입 및 에너지세제의 환경친화적인 개편방안 마련이 필요하다. 이를 위해 본 연구에서는 먼저 시나리오별 탄소세 부과에 따른 사회？경제적 파급효과를 살펴보고 향후 탄소세 도입 시 사회적 수용성을 제고하기 위한 정책을 제시하고자 한다. 탄소세 부과 시나리오별 분석 목적은 탄소세 부과에 따른 긍정적 및 부정적 효과를 살펴보고 경제에 미치는 부정적 효과를 최소화하는 방안을 찾고자 하는 데 있다. 시나리오 1은 에너지원별 CO2 배출계수(IPCC 배출계수)를 감안한 것으로 영국의 Cambridge Econometrics에서 추정한 탄소톤당 25유로의 배출권 가격을 반영한 것이며, 시나리오 2는 유럽 및 주요국에서 현재 부과하는 탄소세 의 평균세율을 우리나라에 적용한 것이다.