환경·경제 통합분석을 위한 환경가치 종합연구 : 부문별 영향평가 및 가치추정

Title
환경·경제 통합분석을 위한 환경가치 종합연구 : 부문별 영향평가 및 가치추정
Authors
김현노
Co-Author
안소은; 김충기; 서양원; 정다운; 박윤선; 한선영; 이홍림
Issue Date
2020-12-31
Publisher
한국환경정책·평가연구원
Series/Report No.
사업보고서 : 2020-06-02
Page
91 p.
URI
http://repository.kei.re.kr/handle/2017.oak/23191
Language
한국어
Keywords
서식처질 가치추정, 생태계서비스 트레이드오프, 생태위해성평가, 화학물질 건강영향, Habitat Quality Value Estimation, Ecosystem Services Trade-off, Ecological Risk Assessment, Health Impact of Chemicals
Abstract
Ⅰ. 생태계서비스 서식처질 가치추정 1. 연구개요 ? 연구목적 ㅇ 환경경제 통합분석 절차를 활용하여 생태계 서식처질 변화에 대한 경제적 가치 및 편익을 추정함으로써 통합분석 절차의 활용성을 제고하고자 함 ㅇ 김현노 외(2019)의 생태계서비스 서식처질에 대한 물리적 영향평가 결과를 바탕으로 경제적 가치를 추정함 ? 연구내용 ㅇ 야생생물 서식에 적절한 상태를 제공하는지를 나타내는 서식처질은 생태계서비스 항목 중 지지서비스에 해당 ㅇ 김현노 외(2019)에서 기평가한, 제주도 토지피복 변화에 따른 서식처질 평가 결과 사용 ㅇ 제주도 생태관광 설문조사(2019)를 바탕으로 제주도 생태관광지에 대한 국민의 인식 및 선호를 파악하고, 선택실험법(CE: Choice Experiment)을 적용하여 12개 관광지의 서식처질 변화에 대한 경제적 가치를 추정함 2. 선행연구 검토 ? 선택실험법을 적용한 생물다양성 경제적 가치 추정 선행연구 검토 ㅇ 대부분 생태관광의 주요 속성으로 생물다양성을 포함함. 생태관광 주요 속성들의 경제적 가치를 평가했던 선행연구에서 사용한 선택실험법의 속성들을 정리하면 다음과 같음 - Chaminuka et al.(2012): 마을 숙박(village accommodation), 마을 투어(village tours), 공예시장 방문(visits to crafts market) - Juutinen et al.(2011): 생물다양성, 방문자 수, 휴게공간, 안내표지판, 입장료 - Naidoo and Adamowicz(2005): 여행시간, 입장료, 관광형태, 숙박시설, 조경 특성(landscape features), 발견되는 새의 종 수(number of bird species), 큰 짐승을 볼 수 있는 가능성(Likelihood of seeing large game animals) 3. 설문조사 ? 설문개요 ㅇ 제주도 생태관광지에 대한 일반 국민의 인식 및 선호를 파악할 목적으로, 최근 5년 내 제주도 주요 생태관광지 12개 중 일부를 방문한 성인 3,000명을 대상으로 온라인 조사를 실시함(2019년 10월 21~25일) ? 선택실험 설계 ㅇ 선택실험법은 분석 대상의 속성 변화에 대한 지불의사액을 추정하는 방법임 ㅇ 제주도 12개 관광지에 대한 설문의 주요 속성으로 관광지 내 편의시설(0~100점), 안내/해설 서비스(5점 척도), 서식처질(0~1), 1인당 입장료를 포함함 ㅇ 응답자의 선호 관광지 선택 및 관련 경험에 대한 평가를 바탕으로 설문지의 선택항목이 제시됨 4. 실증분석 ? 분석모형 ㅇ 본 연구에서는 기본적인 조건부로짓모형(CL: Conditional Logit)뿐만 아니라 응답자의 선호의 이질성을 반영할 수 있도록 Random Parameter Logit Model(RPL) 모형을 함께 추정함 ? 분석 결과 ㅇ CL, RPL 및 RPL+EC 모형은 NLOGIT 6.0 소프트웨어를 사용하였고, CL 모형의 계수들은 최우추정법(maximum likelihood estimation), RPL과 RPL+EC 모형의 계수들은 시뮬레이션 최우추정법(simulated maximum likelihood estimation)을 통해 추정하였음 ㅇ 모든 변수는 예상 부호와 일치하고 통계적으로 유의하게 추정됨. 관광지 내 편의시설, 안내/해설 서비스, 서식처질이 좋은 관광지일수록 선택확률이 높았고, 입장료가 높을수록 해당 대안을 선택하지 않는 것으로 나타남 ㅇ 추정한 세 모형의 AIC, BIC 및 Pseudo R2를 살펴본 결과 RPL 모형이 더 선호되며, RPL 모형과 RPL+EC 모형의 우도비율검정(LR test: Likelihood-ratio test)을 실시한 결과 RPL+EC 모형이 더 적합한 것으로 확인됨. 따라서 서식처질 변화에 대한 편익 추정에는 RPL+EC 모형의 추정 결과를 사용함 ? 편익추정 ㅇ 10년간(2009~2019년) 서식처질 수준 변화는 관광지별로 상이하나 평균 0.19 증가하였음 - 서식지질이 높은 산림 면적이 약 100km2 증가하였고, 서식지질이 낮은 농경지 면적이 약 150km2 감소하여 전체적인 서식처질이 증가한 것으로 나타남 ㅇ 서식처질 변화에 따른 보상잉여(CV) 추정 결과, 서식처질 수준 변화가 없었던 서귀포자연휴양림의 경우를 제외하고 관광객 1인당 253원(절물자연휴양림)에서 2,302원(비자림)의 편익이 있는 것으로 도출됨 ㅇ 2019년 관광지별 입장객 수를 고려할 때, 서식처질 변화에 따른 사회적 편익은 1.8억 원/년(절물자연휴양림)에서 23.7억 원/년(중문대포해안주상절리대)이며, 12개 관광지의 서식처질 개선에 따른 편익은 연간 약 120억 원/년으로 추정됨 5. 시사점 ? 토지이용·개발을 요하는 정책·사업에 생물다양성과 그 편익을 고려할 수 있도록 본 연구 결과를 의사결정 참고자료로 활용할 수 있음 Ⅱ. 생태계서비스 종합평가 1. 연구 배경 및 목적 ? 연구배경 ㅇ 국토 이용효율성 위주의 토지이용정책은 생태계서비스 간의 불균형을 초래하였고, 따라서 밀레니엄 생태계 평가(MA)는 생태계서비스 항목 간에 존재하는 상호작용인 트레이드오프와 시너지 식별이 중요하다고 언급함(MA, 2010) ㅇ 생태계서비스 간 상호작용은 단일의 구동력에 의해 다수의 서비스가 변화하거나, 다른 서비스 변화에 상응하여 변화하는 서비스가 존재할 때 발생함(Bennett et al. 2009) - 생태계서비스 간 상호작용은 공간이나 시간에 걸쳐 반복해서 함께 나타나는 생태계서비스 세트인 ‘번들’을 통해 확인할 수 있음(Raudsepp-Hearne, Peterson, and Bennett, 2010, p.5242) ? 연구목적 ㅇ 생태계서비스 평가를 활용한 환경관리를 위해서는 생태계서비스 간의 관계를 파악하는 일이 매우 중요함 ㅇ 다양한 통계기법을 적용하여 다중 생태계서비스 간의 관계를 파악하고자 함 - 생태계서비스 분석에는 InVEST(Integrated Valuation of Environmental Services and Tradeoffs) Model을 활용함 - 1989~2009년 사이 토지 피복·이용(Land Use Land Cover, LULC) 변화를 5가지 생태계서비스로 평가하고, 주성분분석과 군집분석을 통해 생태계서비스 상호작용변화가 일어난 지역을 확인함 - 추가적으로 제주도지역을 대상으로 몇 가지 생태계서비스 항목에 대한 시계열적 변화를 추정함 2. 생태계서비스 통합분석 평가방법 ? 생태계서비스 평가 및 검증 ㅇ 본 연구에서는 Natural Capital Project에서 개발한 생태계서비스 기반의 의사결정 지원 모델인 InVEST를 사용하여 다수의 생태계서비스 항목을 평가 및 검증하고 그 결과를 토대로 통합평가를 수행함 ? 생태계서비스 통합평가: heatmap ㅇ 생태계서비스 결과마다 단위 및 수치의 범위가 상이하여 비교가 어려운 문제를 해결하기 위해 heatmap을 제시하여 시각적 비교가 가능하도록 하였음 ? 생태계서비스 트레이드오프 관계분석 ㅇ 지역적, 생태계 유형별, 권역별 생태계서비스 제공 경향을 한눈에 알아보기 위해 지역별 생태계서비스 번들을 도출하였고, 주성분분석으로 많은 수량 공급, 수질정화(질소 저류, 인 저류), 탄소 저장, 서식처질 사이의 상관관계를 효율적으로 표현함 ㅇ 주성분분석 후 K-means clustering을 통해 동질적인 생태계서비스 제공 경향을 보이는 지역의 결과를 군집으로 표현함 3. 생태계서비스 현황평가 ? 현황평가 ㅇ 2009년 토지피복도 기반으로 평가한 우리나라 전역의 생태계서비스는 다음과 같음 - 수량공급서비스의 경우 한강 및 낙동강 대권역에서 각각 약 260억m3, 200억m3로 가장 많이 기여하고 있으며, 수질조절서비스 역시 한강 및 낙동강 대권역에서 질소 연간 30톤, 인 연간 2톤 정도를 저류하고 있음. 수자원 생태계서비스의 경우 한강 및 낙동강 대권역이 주요 공급원임을 확인함 - 기후조절 역할을 하는 탄소저장서비스와, 생태계 동식물의 서식 기반과 관련된 서식처질 서비스의 경우 산림, 초지, 습지의 기여도가 높은 서비스임. 따라서 산림이 풍부한 강원도나 경북, 경남 지역을 포함하는 한강 및 낙동강 대권역에서 해당 서비스가 우세한 양상을 보임 ? 생태계서비스 트레이드오프 관계분석 ㅇ 생태계서비스 제공량에 대한 주성분분석 및 K-means 군집분석을 통해 17개의 국내 광역지자체는 4개의 번들로 그룹화됨 ㅇ 4개의 번들은 1. 도시형, 2. 농업형, 3. 산림형, 4. 도서형으로 구분되며, 다음과 같은 특징을 지님 - 도시형 번들: 서울, 인천, 부산, 대구가 포함됨. 인간의 활동으로 배출되는 부산물의 영향으로 인 부하량이 많아 이를 저류하는 양이 많음 - 농업형 번들: 경기, 세종, 전북, 전남, 충남, 광주가 포함. 농업활동 시 질소와 인을 비료로 활용하므로 질소 및 인 저류량이 높음 - 산림형 번들: 대전, 울산, 충북, 경북, 경남이 포함됨. 서식처질과 탄소저장능력이 다른 서비스에 비해 높으며, 조절서비스와 지지서비스의 시너지 효과가 나타남 - 도서형 번들: 제주도가 해당됨. 기후와 토양이 내륙과 다르며, 아열대 습윤 기후대에 속하고 수량공급서비스가 풍부함 4. 토지 피복·이용 변화에 따른 생태계서비스 변화분석 ? 토지 피복·이용 변화에 따른 생태계서비스 변화 통합평가 ㅇ 1989년과 2009년 사이 거의 모든 지역에서 시가화지역이 늘고 산림이 감소했으며, 농경지의 경우 대도시 지역에서는 감소하고 그 외 지역에서는 증가하는 경향을 보임 ㅇ 서울, 부산, 대구, 인천 등 대부분 지역에서 단위면적당 서비스 제공 총량이 감소함 - 생태계서비스의 큰 역할을 담당하는 산림 면적 감소 영향이 크게 나타남 ? 토지 피복·이용 변화에 따른 생태계서비스 트레이드오프 관계 변화 ㅇ 생태계서비스 트레이드오프 및 시너지 관계는 주성분분석 결과로, 서비스 간의 관계는 벡터 간 각도를 통해 확인 가능함 ㅇ 우리나라의 경우 서식처질 및 탄소저장서비스와 인조절서비스 간의 트레이드오프 관계가 발생하는 것으로 확인됨 ㅇ 트레이드오프 및 시너지 효과가 두드러지게 나타나는 지역은 제주, 경기, 광주로 나타남 - 제주: 수질조절서비스가 상승할 때 산림제공서비스인 서식처질, 탄소저장서비스가 감소함 - 경기, 광주: 수질조절서비스와 산림제공서비스인 서식처질, 탄소저장서비스가 동시에 하락함 5. 시사점 ? 생태계서비스 번들 작성 및 서비스 연계 특성을 확인하는 과정에서, 국토계획 의사결정 시 각 생태계서비스의 장단점과 서비스 간 트레이드오프, 시너지 효과를 고려하는 통찰력을 제공할 수 있으리라 기대함 [이하 본문 확인]


Ⅰ. Value Estimation of Ecosystem Services for Habitat Quality 1. Research Overview ? Research objectives ㅇ To improve the application of the integrated analysis procedure by estimating the economic value and benefits of the change in ecosystem habitat quality using environmental economy integrated analysis procedure ㅇ To estimate the economic value based on the results of an assessment of the impact of changes in habitat quality on ecosystem services by Hyunno Kim et al. (2019) ? Research contents ㅇ Habitat quality, which indicates whether the proper conditions for wildlife inhabitation are provided, corresponds to supporting services among ecosystem services. ㅇ The results of an assessment of habitat quality based on land cover changes in Jeju Island, previously evaluated by Hyunno Kim et al. (2019), were used. ㅇ Preferences for ecotourism destinations in Jeju Island and their public perception were identified based on the Jeju Island Ecotourism Survey (2019), and the economic value of the change in habitat quality in 12 main tourist sites were estimated using the choice experiment (CE) method. 2. Literature Review ? Literature review on the economic valuation of biodiversity using the CE method ㅇ Biodiversity is often included as a major attribute of ecotourism. The properties of the CE method used in previous studies that evaluated the economic value of the major characteristics of ecotourism are as follows: - Chaminuka et al. (2012): village accommodation, village tours, visits to crafts market - Juutinen et al. (2011): biodiversity, number of visitors, rest areas information sign, admission fee - Naidoo and Adamowicz (2005): travel time, admission fee, type of tourism, accommodation, landscape features, number of bird species, likelihood of seeing large game animals 3. Survey Analysis ? Survey overview ㅇ To determine preferences for ecotourism destinations in Jeju Island, and their public perceptions, an online survey was carried out among 3,000 adults who visited some of the 12 main tourist sites in Jeju Island in the last 5 years (October 21?25, 2019). ? Choice experiment (CE) design ㅇ CE is a method to estimate the willingness to pay for changes in the attributes of the subject of analysis. ㅇ In the online survey, the main attributes of the 12 ecotourism destinations in Jeju Island included on-site facilities (0?100 points), information and interpretation services (5-point scale), habitat quality (0?1), and admission fee per person. ㅇ The choices in the questionnaire were suggested based on the respondent’s selection of preferred tourist sites and evaluation of related experiences. 4. Empirical Analysis ? Analysis model ㅇ In this study, the basic conditional logit (CL) model and the random parameter logit (RPL) model were used for the estimation to reflect the heterogeneity of the respondent’s preference. ? Analysis results ㅇ The NLOGIT 6.0 software was used for CL, RPL, and RPL+EC models. The coefficients of the CL model were estimated using maximum likelihood estimation, while those of the RPL and RPL+EC models were estimated using simulated maximum likelihood estimation. ㅇ All parameters matched the predicted sign and were statistically significantly estimated. The tourist sites with superior on-site facilities, information and interpretation services, and habitat quality had a higher probability of being selected, while those with higher admission fees had a lower probability of being selected. ㅇ Based on the AIC, BIC, and Pseudo R2 of the three estimation models, the RPL model was more preferred. Based on the likelihood-ratio (LR) test results of the RPL and RPL+EC models, the RPL+EC model was found to be more suitable. Therefore, the estimation results of the RPL+EC model were used to estimate the benefits of the change in habitat quality. ? Benefit estimation ㅇ The change in habitat quality over the past 10 years (2009?2019) varied per tourist site, but it increased by 0.19 on average. - The forest area with high habitat quality increased by approximately 100 km2, and the farmland area with low habitat quality decreased by approximately 150 km2. These results indicate that the overall habitat quality increased. ㅇ Based on the results of the estimation of compensating surplus (CV) due to the change in habitat quality, it was deduced that the social benefit ranged from KRW 253 (Jeolmul Natural Recreation Forest) to KRW 2,302 (Bijarim Forest) per person. This excluded the case of Seogwipo Natural Recreation Forest, where there was no change in habitat quality. ㅇ Considering the number of visitors for each tourist site in 2019, the social benefit of the change in habitat quality ranged from KRW 0.18 billion (Jeolmul Natural Recreation Forest) to KRW 2.37 billion per year (Jungmun Daepo Beach Jusangjeolli Range), and the social benefit resulting from the improvement of habitat quality in the 12 tourist sites is estimated to be approximately KRW 12 billion per year. 5. Implications ? With respect to biodiversity and its benefits, the results of this study can be used as a reference for decision making in policies and projects requiring land-use development. Ⅱ. Comprehensive Evaluation of Ecosystem Services 1. Research background and objectives ? Research background ㅇ The land-use policy focusing on land-use efficiency caused an imbalance between ecosystem services. Hence, the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA) stated that distinguishing tradeoffs and synergy, interactions existing between ecosystem services, are important (MA, 2010). ㅇ Interactions between ecosystem services occur when multiple services change due to a single driving force, or when services change in response to changes in other services (Bennett et al., 2009). - Interactions between ecosystem services can be identified through “bundles,” a set of ecosystem services that appear over space or time repeatedly (Raudsepp-Hearne, Peterson, and Bennett, 2010, p.5242). ? Research objectives ㅇ For environmental management using ecosystem services evaluation, it is very important to understand the relationship between ecosystem services. This can be achieved by applying various statistical methods. - The InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Environmental Services and Tradeoffs) Model was used to analyze ecosystem services. - Land-Use Land Cover (LULC) changes in 1989?2009 were evaluated through five ecosystem services, and regions where ecosystem service interactions changed were identified through principal component analysis (PCA) and cluster analysis. - Time series changes for several ecosystem services were estimated for the Jeju Island region. 2. Integrated Analysis Evaluation Method for Ecosystem Services ? Evaluation and verification of ecosystem services ㅇ In this study, a number of ecosystem services were evaluated and verified utilizing InVEST, an ecosystem service-based decision support model developed by the Natural Capital Project, and the comprehensive evaluation was performed based on the results. ? Integrated valuation of ecosystem services: heatmap ㅇ To overcome difficulties in comparing results due to different units and ranges of values for each ecosystem service, a heatmap was created to enable visual comparison. ? Trade-off relationship analysis of ecosystem services ㅇ To determine the trend in ecosystem service provision by region, ecosystem type, and region, a bundle of ecosystem services by region was derived. The correlation between water supply, water purification (nitrogen undercurrent, phosphorus undercurrent), carbon storage, and habitat quality was effectively represented using PCA. ㅇ After PCA, the regional results showed a tendency of homogeneous ecosystem service provision, which were presented as clusters through K-means clustering. 3. Status Evaluation of Ecosystem Services ? Current status evaluation ㅇ The ecosystem services across all regions of South Korea that were evaluated based on the 2009 land cover map are as follows: - In terms of water supply service, Hangang River and Nakdonggang River contribute the most, about 26 and 20 billion m3, respectively. Moreover, for the water quality control service, Hangang River and Nakdonggang River together underrun 30 tons of nitrogen and 2 tons of phosphorus, annually. In terms of water resources ecosystem services, Hangang River and Nakdonggang River were confirmed to be the main source of supply. - The carbon storage service playing a role in climate control and the habitat quality service related to the habitat base of ecosystems, plants, and animals were the services in which forests, grasslands, and wetlands had a high contribution. Therefore, the corresponding services tend to be dominant in Hangang River and Nakdonggang River, including the Gangwon-do, Gyeongsangbuk-do, and Gyeongsangnam-do regions with rich forests. ? Trade-off relationship analysis of ecosystem services ㅇ Seventeen domestic metropolitan governments were grouped into four bundles through PCA and K-means clustering on the amount of ecosystem services provided. ㅇ The four bundles were classified as (1) urban type, (2) agricultural type, (3) forest type, and (4) island type. They have the following characteristics: - Urban type bundle: This included Seoul, Incheon, Pusan, and Daegu. Due to the effect of by-products discharged from human activities, there was a large amount of phosphorus load. Hence, its undercurrent amount was high. - Agricultural type bundle: This included Gyeonggi, Sejong, Jeonbuk, Jeonnam, Chungnam, and Gwangju. Nitrogen and phosphorus were used as fertilizers in agricultural activities. Hence, their undercurrent amount was high. - Forest type bundle: This included Daejeon, Ulsan, Chungbuk, Gyeongbuk, and Gyeonnam. The habitat quality and carbon storage capacity was higher than other services, and the synergy between regulating and supporting services were observed. - Island type bundle: This included Jeju Island. The climate and soil are different from that of the inland region. It belongs to the subtropical wet climate zone and water quantity supply service is abundant. 4. Analysis of Changes in Ecosystem Services Based on Changes in Land Cover and Use ? Integrated evaluation of changes in ecosystem services based on changes in land cover and use ㅇ From 1989 to 2009, urbanized areas increased and forest decreased in almost all regions. Farmland tended to decrease in large urban areas and increase in other areas. ㅇ The total amount of service per unit area decreased in most regions such as Seoul, Pusan, Daegu, and Incheon. - The effect of decreasing forest area, which plays a central role in ecosystem services, was significant. ? Changes in the trade-off relationship of ecosystem services based on changes in land cover and use ㅇ The trade-off and synergistic effects of ecosystem services were determined through PCA, and the relationship between services was confirmed through the angle between vectors. ㅇ In South Korea, there is a trade-off relationship between habitat quality and carbon storage services and phosphorus regulating services. ㅇ The regions with noticeable trade-off and synergistic effects were Jeju, Gyeonggi, and Gwangju. - Jeju: When the water quality control service increased, the habitat quality and carbon storage services, which are provided by forests, decreased. - Gyeonggi, Gwangju: The water quality control service, along with the forest provisioning service such as habitat quality and carbon storage services, decreased simultaneously. 5. Implications ? In the process of developing an ecosystem services bundle and identifying the characteristics of service connection, it was expected that insights considering the advantages and disadvantages of each ecosystem service, along with the trade-off and synergistic effects between services when making decisions on land-use planning, would be gleaned. Ⅲ. Title ? In the second phase (2019?2021) of this study, a framework for estimating chemical damage, particularly the effect of chemicals on humans through dietary exposure in the ecosystem, will be established. ㅇ In the first year of the second phase, (2019), an ecological risk assessment of harmful environmental factors and a preliminary investigation on the estimated cost of damage were performed by reviewing the literature that assessed “the effect of chemicals on the ecosystem,” which is the first link route of the harmful factor-ecosystem (acceptor)-health impact. ㅇ In the second phase of the second year (2020), domestic cases of the ecological risk assessment and damage cost estimation due to major environmental hazards were investigated to find the possibility of connecting the ecosystem risk and value estimation based on ”environmental harmful factor-ecosystem effect-value estimation” route. 1. Research Overview ? In 2016, the United States Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) proposed a new form of risk assessment by adding ”ecosystem service endpoints that can be introduced into ecological risk assessment” to the existing ecological risk assessment endpoint (ES-GEAEs; ecosystem services generic ecological assessment endpoints) ㅇ This enables the quantitative benefit analysis and valuation from a human perspective, such as economic, socio-psychological, and health benefits that the ecosystem provides to humans. - Among them, the AQUATOX model makes it possible to comprehensively assess the effect of contaminants on the aquatic ecosystem. It has the advantage of linking entity-level toxicity data to multi-species or ecosystem reactions; thus, it is expected to have a wide application. - This study will review the utility of the model, whether it can link the “introduction of chemical change in ecosystem service-value evaluation.” In this regard, cases where ecological risk assessments were performed using the AQUATOX model were investigated. 2. Case Analysis ? AQUATOX model ㅇ AQUATOX is an ecological risk assessment model evaluating the complex environmental behavior and effect of general contaminants such as nutrients, sediments, and toxic chemicals in the aquatic ecosystem. - It is possible to move from a simple model to a model considering the food intake of a complex aquatic food web. ㅇ AQUATOX major input data and results - Input data: Input on biomass density for each species, water quality information, hydrographical information, and environmental changes (exposure to chemicals, eutrophication, etc.) - Results: Change in biomass density for each species, change in chemical concentration, change in water quality, etc. ? A domestic case study evaluating ecological impact using the AQUATOX model ㅇ Hanpil Lee (2012): Conducted a pioneering study on aquatic ecology risk prediction and long-term ecological impact assessment using the AQUATOX model, which was the first of its kind in South Korea. - Simulated the ecological change of Paldangho Lake, analyzed the biomass change according to the seasonal characteristics and food intake impact stages, and simulated the ecological impact of biomass by setting up a scenario of introducing agricultural pesticides (herbicide) and feed additives. ㅇ Jaehoon Yeom, Sangdon Kim (2019): Performed an ecological impact assessment of a scenario of toluene spill into the river - Distinct characteristics used to evaluate the domestic species - Used the method of converting biomass information to density ㅇ National Institute of Environmental Research (2018): Established the concept of aquatic ecosystem ecological modeling of the domestic large river mainstream in South Korea; selected AQUATOX as an analysis model, applied it to the appropriate range, and performed a study on materializing the prediction basis for the aquatic ecosystem change that fits domestic conditions. - In the case of running the food web-based model and species diversity model in parallel, it was suggested that the AQUATOX can be a good tool for reproducing, predicting, and interpreting ecosystems. ? An international case study evaluating ecological impact using the AQUATOX model ㅇ Galic et al. (2019): Conducted a representative case study research that linked “exposure to chemical-ecosystem service change-value evaluation” using the AQUATOX model. - Obtained the result (predicted) values of “abundance of game fish (biomass)” and “water clarity (secchi depths)” through the AQUATOX and performed valuation using these values. 3. Review on Research Methodology Application Method ? Based on a review of literature evaluating ecological impact using the AQUATOX model, it was possible to derive results on changes in biomass. ? There is a need to review how to connect value estimation in South Korea, similar to the ecology risk assessment results shown by Galic et al. (2019). ? Suggestions for linkage ㅇ There is a method to quantify the value of “biomass” through the hypothetical scenario selection and the questionnaire about chemical accident or environmental pollution. ㅇ The index linking method, in which the results of the AQUATOX model is linked to an index to determine the economic value of the corresponding index, can be considered. Ⅳ. Estimation of Health Impact Value due to Environmental Harmful Factor 1. Research Overview ? Disability-Adjusted Life Year (DALY) is a commonly used index by countries including WHO and Ministry of Environment. It is used not only for comparing major environmental diseases but also for environmental health policies, such as understanding the level of contribution of environmental harmful factors within diseases. ㅇ DALY is the sum of ”lifespan damaged by early death” and ”number of years living healthy that is damaged by disability.” ? Since the basic unit of DALY was derived from the previous studies, it is possible to estimate the economic value of the health impact expressed as DALY. ? Chemical-related diseases evaluated through DALY are continuously expanding. This study will review cases on the quantification of chemical health impact and value estimation, such as mercury and IQ, cardiovascular system disease. 2. Case analysis ? DALY-related case studies ㅇ Grandjean and Bellanger (2017): Focused on the functional change of the human body that is not identified as a disease, analyzed the correlation between exposure-response, and proposed the method to supplement the existing DALY calculation method. - Calculated disease burden using the concept of attributing factor (AF) - For instance, lead or mercury is known to cause adverse health impacts in the nervous system, while organophosphorus biocides and brominated flame retardant are neurotoxic materials, the cause-and-effect relationship of which are not recognized. The disease burden of this major group of materials was estimated. - The cost estimation results related to the neurotoxicity for four groups of materials accounted for over 2.5% of the world GDP, and using this method, the damage costs for cancer and respiratory diseases were obtained. ㅇ Pr?ss-Ust?n A. et al. (2016): Reviewed 133 diseases and injuries through a literature review; and conducted a comparative risk assessment based on epidemiology estimation, specialist opinion, and disease propagation path information, and used the level of contribution of each population group for the calculation of disease burden for each environmental factor - When estimating the burden of disease, the level of contribution of the corresponding factor varied depending on whether the environmental factors were included. - Suggested the level of contribution of environmental and non- environmental factors on the disease burden for each target disease. ㅇ Navrud S. (2018): The OECD estimated the health impact, environmental impact, and economic benefit of phthalate, mercury, NMP (N-Methyl- 2-pyrrolidone), and formaldehyde through a literature review on the health impact and economic valuation of chemicals. ㅇ Temkin A. (2019): A study estimating the health impact of nitrate through drinking water intake and the corresponding economic damage. - The incidence of and number of patients with colorectal cancer, ovarian cancer, renal cancer, thyroid cancer, and bladder cancer, along with infant-related diseases, were presented among the health impacts of nitrate. - The annual DALYs for patients suffering from nitrate were deduced and converted to economic damage. 3. Review of Research Methodology Application Method ? Additional chemicals and diseases for DALY derivation ㅇ The subjects reviewed for the application of DALY derivation and economic damage estimation methodology in this study are shown below. - Neurotoxicity impact: loss of recognition functions, including PBDEs, phosphorus agricultural pesticides - Effect of EDCs (endocrine-disrupting chemicals): reproductive system, diabetes, and obesity including phthalate, PBDEs, and DE - Cancer caused by nitrate: colorectal cancer, ovarian cancer, thyroid cancer, renal cancer, pancreatic cancer, etc. ? Review of application target domestic data ㅇ The list of related domestic data that can be reviewed is shown below. - Kim et al. (2019): Conducted a meta-analysis of the correlation between DHEP, a major phthalate, and thyroid function. There is a need to quantify the domestic health impact due to the phthalate and prepared the value estimation method. - Data related to nitrate in Seoul Metropolitan Government Arisu: Methodology of DALYs and value estimation about cancer due to the exposure to nitrate can be applied to the domestic Arisu nitrate concentration data. ? Cases of health impact quantification and value demonstrative estimation ㅇ The quantification of health impacts of nitrate through drinking water intake was demonstratively conducted according to the methodology of Temkin et al. (2019), and the value for each disease was estimated. ㅇ Occurrence of very low weight - The total sum of IQ loss of infants with very low birth weight due to exposure to nitrate in the Arisu water supply was calculated to be approximately 2,012 per year (as of 2019). - Based on the application results of the IQ change unit value (Soeun Ahn et al., 2018), the total damage was estimated to be around KRW 28 billion annually. ㅇ Colorectal cancer incidence due to nitrate intake - Among the Arisu intake targets, colorectal cancer incidence due to the nitrate intake was estimated to be 2,951 cases. - Applying the DALYs of 7.2 for one colorectal cancer patient suggested by Temkin et al.(2019) (DALYs due to colorectal cancer: 21,248) and DALY basic unit value (KRW 23.39 million) by Soeun Ahn et al. (2018), the ”value of colorectal cancer incidence due to the exposure to nitrate” is estimated to be approximately KRW 49.70 billion per year. 4. Considerations for future enforcement ? Future research should consider disease and quantification techniques through the application of DALYs methodology. ? The methodology should include the economic valuation of health impacts. ㅇ In addition to the VOLY applied in the DALY value, further consideration is required for indices that can take into account the change of life quality such as QALY, apart from VOLY applied during the DALY value estimation process. ? The continuous link method with the SWACHE project propelled by the OECD from 2020 should be prepared, and related research needs to be performed. ㅇ Above all, the target chemicals related to the IQ loss should be expanded, and research on deriving the willingness to pay (WTP) should be carried out.

Table Of Contents

제1장 생태계서비스 서식처질 가치추정
1. 연구개요
2. 선행연구 검토
3. 설문조사
4. 실증분석
5. 시사점

제2장 생태계서비스 종합평가
1. 연구배경 및 목적
2. 생태계서비스 통합분석 평가방법
3. 생태계서비스 현황평가
4. 토지피복·이용 변화에 따른 생태계서비스 변화분석
5. 시사점

제3장 생태계-환경유해인자 건강영향 연계
1. 연구개요
2. 사례분석
3. 연구방법론 적용방안 검토

제4장 환경유해인자로 인한 건강영향 가치추정
1. 연구개요
2. 사례분석
3. 연구방법론 적용방안 검토

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Executive Summary

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