Impact of Urban Form on CO2 Emissions Using a STIRPAT Model : Focusing on 15 cities in South, Southeast and West Asia

Abstract

The United Nations (UN) estimates that an additional 2.5 billion people will reside in urban areas by 2050. Due to rapid economic development and urbanization, urban areas are responsible for more than 70% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from final energy use. Rapid urbanization will predominantly occur in emerging nations, particularly in Asia, where more than four billion people reside, accounting for around 55% of the world’s population. However, the temporal and spatial characteristics of urban structure in emerging cities and their correlations with GHG emissions are hardly understood, despite the fact that urban form is an important determinant of urban sustainability. Given this context, the study aims to evaluate the dynamics of urban form using three key measurements―population density, Moran’s index, and population gradient coefficient―in the capital cities of South, Southeast, and West Asia and investigate how urban form affects CO2 emissions. The study employs a modified STRIPAT (Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology) model as its major framework, using panel data from 2000 to 2019 with a five-year gap. The results indicate that the evolution of urban form varies from city to city while the population density continues to increase with slight variations in Moran’s and population gradient coefficients. Considering the changes in the three indicators over time in the cities under study, it can be concluded that urbanization in the researched areas is generally getting more compact. Moran’s index is a statistically significant factor concerning CO2 emissions, indicating that CO2 emissions could be lowered in cities with more clustered forms. The findings of this research have major implications for urban policy-makers seeking to explain the dynamics of urban form, how it evolves in developing countries, and how CO2 emissions are affected. [Key Words] Urban form, CO2 emissions, STIRPAT model