국제 온실가스 배출권 거래제도의 파급효과 분석

Abstract

Abstract Economic Impacts of International Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trading This study analyses economic impacts of international greenhouse gas emissions trading. It employs a computable general equilibrium model, ENV-Linkages, developed by OECD environmental directorate. A business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and a number of policy scenarios on international emissions market development are constructed and the economic impacts of such policy scenarios are compared with the BAU scenario. The simulation results show that the introduction of international emissions trading tends to reduce economic cost (measured by real GDP loss) of all regions. The results show that China and India supplies most of the emission permits in the international market. Such countries take advantages of the huge potential low-cost reduction options and get big financial benefits from the sales of emission permits. Net export of ordinary goods and services decreases in those countries. This study also compares the impacts of two kinds of typical domestic policy instruments, emissions trading with free initial allocation, and carbon taxes. The results show that domestic emissions trading tend to increase production activities by way of the production subsidy effects of free allocation of emissions permits. Such effects, however, vary region by region and some regions incurs negative impacts to production.