기후변화에 따른 생태계 영향평가 및 대응방안 연구 Ⅲ

Title
기후변화에 따른 생태계 영향평가 및 대응방안 연구 Ⅲ
Other Titles
삼림부문을 중심으로
Authors
전성우
Co-Author
박용하; 정휘철; 이동근; Matsuoka; Yuzuru; Harasawa; Hideo; Takahashi; Kiyoshi
Issue Date
2002-12-30
Publisher
한국환경정책·평가연구원
Series/Report No.
연구보고서 : 2002-08
Page
xvii, 225p.
URI
http://repository.kei.re.kr/handle/2017.oak/19084
Language
한국어
Keywords
Forest microclimatology
Abstract
Climate change has now become more and more evident all over the world; consequently, the world has strived to work out strategies to mitigate the climate change processes and to adapt to the change. For it has only been a few decades or centuries since climate change triggered by greenhouse gas emissions, the potential impacts by climate change should be assessed in a long term to establish appropriate and effective counter measures. This study has been conducted for 3 years since year 2000 to suggest a framework approach to an integrated climate change impact assessment model for forest sector for Korea, where no integrated climate change impact model has not yet been developed. Chapter 2 of this study attempted to review various climate change impact assessment results on forest to predict the national-level and macro-level impacts. The macro- level assessment results show significant impact due to climate change on the Korean peninsula is unlikely; however, the national-level impact on the environment was not able to be predicted due to the dense spatial resolution of the model. Therefore, it is concluded that a regional model at an appropriate spatial resolution is required to assess the climate change impact in Korea. In chapter 3, the structures and theoretical frameworks of various climate change impact models on forest sector were reviewed. These models were classified into 4 different approach techniques: experiment, analogy, expert opinion, and quantitative modeling. The results show that an integrated impact assessment model based on quantitative modeling techniques is most appropriate in case of Korea. To quantify the impact on forest, the Holdridge bio-climate model, which is a process-based bio-physical model, were considered to be compatible. Chapter 4 covers the structure and detailed development focuses of AIM/IMPACT (Korea) model employed for this study. Issues related to global warming scenarios, GCMs (General Circulation Models) and RCMs (Regional Circulation Models), temperature resolution considering the lapse rate, impact assessment model on forest sector, and adaptation assessment methods are discussed. In chapter 5, the actual impact assessment on forest sector using the developed AIM/IMPACT(Korea) model was attempted. The assessment results predict that the warm-temperate and boreal wet forests in the southern region are likely to decline by 34.99% under the A2 scenario. Moreover, the warm-temperate and boreal wet forests in the western part of the mid latitude areas are likely to decline by 16.18%. In the eastern part of the mid latitude areas, a 3.16% decline was predicted. 3.11% decline was expected in the northern part of the peninsula. Throughout the whole Korean peninsula, it is predicted to be that warm-temperate forest will decline and be replaced by sub-tropical forest. This results contrast to the macro-level impact assessment results; therefore, a further comparative study is urged with similar climate change impact assessment study cases of similar latitude countries. Since the adaptation patterns of forest to climate change are all different by constituent tree types, the adaptation pattern was predicted by the mean velocity of forests migrating to more suitable bio-climate conditions in this study. Under the B2 scenario, the net economic loss 1 million US dollars If the mean velocity of forest reaches 250 meter/year, the net economic loss is predicted to be over 1 million US dollars under the B2 scenario. Moreover, it was also predicted that the economic loss will be as much as 7 million US dollars under the A2 scenario. In general, the faster the forest velocity gets, the more the net economic loss decreases; however, the minimum net economic loss is predicted to be 29 million US dollars and the maximum net loss will be 558 million US dollars if the mean velocity of forest is 2.0km/year. In chapter 6, the significant issues raised in multi-lateral meetings related to the United Nations Convention of Climate Change and the consequences are reviewed. For adaptation measures, 8 case studies are reviewed including cases of developed countries and Asian countries focusing on the government level adaptation structures and actual implementation cases. The case studies showed that most effort has been made to alleviate the climate change by the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions; however, no practical effort to mitigate the impact on forest and the adaptation measures has not been made. In chapter 7, the limitation of this study and policy suggestions are discussed: - Develop a continuous data acquisition scheme for the development of integrated impact assessment model - Establish an efficient data distribution system - Establish an organic cooperation scheme between related institutions - Review of multiple scenarios - Support studies on integrated impact assessment - Develop the concrete climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies on forest sector

Table Of Contents

서언 1
요약 1

제1장 서론 1
1. 연구의 배경 및 필요성 1
2. 연구의 목적 및 범위 4
3. 연구의 흐름 6


제2장 기후변화에 따른 삼림영향평가 선행연구결과 분석 9
1. 광역차원의 영향평가 9
가. 대기대순환모형 9
나. 삼림영향평가 10
2. 한반도 차원의 영향평가 16
가. 대기대순환모형 16
나. 삼림영향평가모형 17
3. 연구결과 분석 및 고찰 19


제3장 기후변화에 따른 삼림영향평가모형 연구동향 분석 21
1. 모형 개발 배경 21
2. 기후변화로 인한 삼림영향평가모형 구분 22
가. 실험법 22
나. 유추법 22
다. 전문가판단 23
라. 정량적 모형 23
3. 모형 개발 동향 분석 및 고찰 27


제4장 삼림영향평가모형 선정 및 적용방법 31
1. AIM/Imapct(Korea)모형 31
가. 모형의 선정 31
나. 모형의 개발 방향 32
다. AIM/Impact(Korea) 모형의 구조 34
라. AIM/Impact(Korea) 모형의 세부 개발 내용 35
2. 기온상승시나리오 39
가. IPCC IS92 시나리오 39
나. SRES 시나리오 42
3. 대기대순환모형과 지역대기순환모형 50
4. 기온감율을 고려한 기온의 공간내삽방법 54
가. 일평균 기온감율의 추정 54
나. 기온감율 기반의 공간내삽모형 55
5. 삼림영향평가모형 57
6. 삼림의 적응성 추정 59
7. 삼림의 경제적 가치평가 65


제5장 모형의 적용 및 분석 67
1. 연구대상지역의 선정 68
2. 미래기후의 추정 69
가. 기온 71
나. 강수량 74
다. 기후예측결과 75
3. 삼림의 생물기후학적 분류 및 검증 81
가. 삼림의 생물기후학적 분류 81
나. 온량지수와 현존식생도를 이용한 모델의 검증 83
4. 기후변화에 따른 삼림의 영향 평가 85
가. 영향 분석의 구조 85
나. 기후변화로 인한 삼림의 분포 변화 평가 86
다. 기후변화로 인한 삼림의 적응성 평가 92
5. 삼림의 경제적 가치손실액 추정 97


제6장 기후변화에 따른 삼림부분 대응방안 103
1. 기후변화협약 103
가. IPCC와 UNFCCC 103
나. 당사국 총회 추진현황 및 주요내용 106
다. 교토의정서 발효 등 향후전망 111
2. 주요 선진국의 대응방안 사례 113
가. 유럽연합 113
나. 미국 116
다. 캐나다. 119
라. 호주 124
마. 영국 126
바. 덴마크 128
사. 프랑스 131
아. 멕시코 134
자. 일본 136
3. 대응방안 비교 분석 139


제7장 요약 및 제안 141
1. 요약 141
2. 정책제안 143
3. 연구의 한계 및 향후 연구제안 149

참고문헌 151

Abstract 153

부록1 : IPCC SRES 시나리오 167
부록2 : 일본의 SRES 시나리오 191
부록3 : 우리나라의 삼림식물대 207
부록4 : 용어 설명 213

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