기후변화에 따른 생태계 영향평가 및 대응방안 연구 Ⅲ

Abstract

Climate change has now become more and more evident all over the world; consequently, the world has strived to work out strategies to mitigate the climate change processes and to adapt to the change. For it has only been a few decades or centuries since climate change triggered by greenhouse gas emissions, the potential impacts by climate change should be assessed in a long term to establish appropriate and effective counter measures. This study has been conducted for 3 years since year 2000 to suggest a framework approach to an integrated climate change impact assessment model for forest sector for Korea, where no integrated climate change impact model has not yet been developed. Chapter 2 of this study attempted to review various climate change impact assessment results on forest to predict the national-level and macro-level impacts. The macro- level assessment results show significant impact due to climate change on the Korean peninsula is unlikely; however, the national-level impact on the environment was not able to be predicted due to the dense spatial resolution of the model. Therefore, it is concluded that a regional model at an appropriate spatial resolution is required to assess the climate change impact in Korea. In chapter 3, the structures and theoretical frameworks of various climate change impact models on forest sector were reviewed. These models were classified into 4 different approach techniques: experiment, analogy, expert opinion, and quantitative modeling. The results show that an integrated impact assessment model based on quantitative modeling techniques is most appropriate in case of Korea. To quantify the impact on forest, the Holdridge bio-climate model, which is a process-based bio-physical model, were considered to be compatible. Chapter 4 covers the structure and detailed development focuses of AIM/IMPACT (Korea) model employed for this study. Issues related to global warming scenarios, GCMs (General Circulation Models) and RCMs (Regional Circulation Models), temperature resolution considering the lapse rate, impact assessment model on forest sector, and adaptation assessment methods are discussed. In chapter 5, the actual impact assessment on forest sector using the developed AIM/IMPACT(Korea) model was attempted. The assessment results predict that the warm-temperate and boreal wet forests in the southern region are likely to decline by 34.99% under the A2 scenario. Moreover, the warm-temperate and boreal wet forests in the western part of the mid latitude areas are likely to decline by 16.18%. In the eastern part of the mid latitude areas, a 3.16% decline was predicted. 3.11% decline was expected in the northern part of the peninsula. Throughout the whole Korean peninsula, it is predicted to be that warm-temperate forest will decline and be replaced by sub-tropical forest. This results contrast to the macro-level impact assessment results; therefore, a further comparative study is urged with similar climate change impact assessment study cases of similar latitude countries. Since the adaptation patterns of forest to climate change are all different by constituent tree types, the adaptation pattern was predicted by the mean velocity of forests migrating to more suitable bio-climate conditions in this study. Under the B2 scenario, the net economic loss 1 million US dollars If the mean velocity of forest reaches 250 meter/year, the net economic loss is predicted to be over 1 million US dollars under the B2 scenario. Moreover, it was also predicted that the economic loss will be as much as 7 million US dollars under the A2 scenario. In general, the faster the forest velocity gets, the more the net economic loss decreases; however, the minimum net economic loss is predicted to be 29 million US dollars and the maximum net loss will be 558 million US dollars if the mean velocity of forest is 2.0km/year. In chapter 6, the significant issues raised in multi-lateral meetings related to the United Nations Convention of Climate Change and the consequences are reviewed. For adaptation measures, 8 case studies are reviewed including cases of developed countries and Asian countries focusing on the government level adaptation structures and actual implementation cases. The case studies showed that most effort has been made to alleviate the climate change by the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions; however, no practical effort to mitigate the impact on forest and the adaptation measures has not been made. In chapter 7, the limitation of this study and policy suggestions are discussed: - Develop a continuous data acquisition scheme for the development of integrated impact assessment model - Establish an efficient data distribution system - Establish an organic cooperation scheme between related institutions - Review of multiple scenarios - Support studies on integrated impact assessment - Develop the concrete climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies on forest sector